SMU 59-20 California (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: California · SMU

California3-520

No. 23 SMU6-159Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas · Crowd 26,463

No. 23 SMU routed California 59-20.

We had SMU favored. It won.

Next: California at NC State, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · California underdog by 7

Next: SMU at Syracuse, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · SMU favored by 10

SMU a 4th down TD team now

A fan of another team

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave SMU an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (SMU was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.

FinalSMU 59-20 CaliforniaSMU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 1:574th and 1Raphael 1-yd TD run, ties it 17-17SMU 73% → 85% (+12)
2Q2 0:00McGough 37-yd field goal, California goes ahead 20-17SMU 85% → 74% (−11)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 1:574th and 1Raphael 1-yd TD run, ties it 17-17California 27% → 15% (−12)
2Q2 0:00McGough 37-yd field goal, California goes ahead 20-17California 15% → 26% (+11)

Besides the clock manage that the end, that’s the best half of football we have played all year.

Q2 0:07 · A California fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 11:29LMAO HOW CAN YOU NOT BE PREPARED FOR OUR FEARSOME BUBBLE SCREENS?r/CFB game threadThat throw is why benching him last week was wildr/CFB game thread
Q2 7:48California fans complain about a missed first down spot on Sagapolutele's passThe ref missed that spot by 3 yards, jesus christr/CFB game threadwe actually look good today - not getting my hopes up on getting the win but this is our first properly played gamer/CFB game thread
Q2 0:07Cal fans debate lucky clock management as McGough kicks a 37-yard field goal to take the leadTowns McGough legacy game???r/CFB game thread

SMU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (SMU -18.5), at 92% for SMU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a SMU or California flair (93 and 259); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Every drive

SMU scored on 9 of its 12 drives; California on 4 of its 12.

SMU’s drives are teal, California’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From California’s side

California’s best moment: McGough 37-yd field goal, California goes ahead 20-17 (Q2 0:00). It lifted California’s win chance by 11 points.

How California fans took it: “Fire Tosh He does nothing well. Nothing. Besides badger and guilt fans for not having more enthusiasm for his abject failure of a dogshit product.” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 15% to 17%.

Make the playoff

California · lost0% → 0%

SMU · won15% → ▲17%

Win the conference

California · lost0% → 0%

SMU · won13% → ▲15%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

SMU plays at Syracuse on Sat Oct 31 with a 17% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

SMU 59, California 20

SMU covered −18.5 by 20.5. The total, 79, went over 55.5.

Team totals	California	SMU
Total yards	305	492
Passing	27 of 38, 265 yds	17 of 24, 236 yds
Rushing	28 for 40 yds	44 for 256 yds
First downs	16	31
Third down	5 of 16	2 of 9
Fourth down	1 of 3	4 of 4
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	11 for 107 yds	5 for 50 yds
Time of possession	31:22	28:38

California leaders

Passing Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 27 of 37, 265 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Ashten Emory 14 for 27 yds; Dominic Ingrassia 2 for 11 yds
Receiving Chase Hendricks 7 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Ian Strong 5 for 71 yds

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 16 of 23, 223 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 22 for 104 yds, 2 TD; Ty Hawkins 3 for 60 yds
Receiving Jalen Cooper 2 for 37 yds; Jalen Hale 2 for 34 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 20

The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 63° and 79°.

October game-day temperatures at Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left11:11 a.m.

California 0, SMU 0 · SMU 92% to win

no rain · wind 5 mph from the south · 74°

Jennings incomplete to Cooper

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Dallas/love Field, 4.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

California · 3-4

Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 113th now, down 50 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 5-point win over Virginia Tech as an 11.5-point underdog.

L 7-41 vs Wake ForestTop 25 No. 26 of 668 teams

lost by 34 as a 10-point underdog

W 25-20 vs Virginia Tech No. 47 of 668 teams

won by 5 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 31-39 @ UNLV No. 79 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 10-24 vs ClemsonTop 25 No. 27 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 49-7 vs Wagner No. 258 of 668 teams

won by 42 as a 58.5-point favorite

W 21-18 @ Syracuse No. 127 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 4-point underdog

L 24-45 vs UCLATop 25 No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

Last three games

SMU · 5-1

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 36th now, down 21 spots.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 23-13 vs VirginiaTop 25 No. 60 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

W 25-16 vs Boston College No. 124 of 668 teams

won by 9 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 34-24 vs Missouri State No. 102 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 30.5-point favorite

L 31-41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 No. 43 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 3-point underdog

W 56-10 vs UC Davis No. 102 of 668 teams

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ Florida State No. 84 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Week by week

SMU

Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10
Wk 3Lat Louisville31-41
Wk 4Wvs Missouri State34-24
Wk 5Wvs Boston College25-16
Wk 7Wvs Virginia23-13

California

Wk 3Wvs Wagner49-7
Wk 4Lvs Clemson10-24
Wk 5Lat UNLV31-39
Wk 6Wvs Virginia Tech25-20
Wk 7Lvs Wake Forest7-41

Power rating by week

SMU is rated 8.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: SMU’s EPA/play against California, 70 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

SMU’s EPA/play against California’s defense
SMU offense, 85th percentile · California defense, 15th
SMU’s explosive plays against California’s defense
SMU offense, 72nd percentile · California defense, 5th
SMU’s passing EPA against California’s defense
SMU offense, 95th percentile · California defense, 40th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

CaliforniaSMU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 1957 · California won the last meeting

2025California 38-35
2024SMU 38-6
1957SMU 13-6

Each line is SMU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

SMU fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (27th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

SMU favored by 18.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

SMU by 18.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward SMU.

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

SMU is worth +5.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.

80% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (35-9 home, 30-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.0 at home vs. away over 103 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 1,472 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

SMU3rd3-1
California10th2-2

Full ACC standings

No. 23 SMU routs California 59-20