Miami 52-23 Pittsburgh (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Pittsburgh · Miami

Pittsburgh5-323

No. 1 Miami7-052Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. · Crowd 65,991

No. 1 Miami routed Pittsburgh 52-23.

We had Miami favored. It won.

Next: Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech, Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Pittsburgh favored by 7.5

Next: Miami at North Carolina, Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Miami favored by 14.5

am i crazy or was that extremely clear and very obvious?

A fan of another team

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Safety

Pittsburgh · Q4 7:41

FinalMiami 52-23 PittsburghMiami wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Hey good luck this year Miami. You guys are definitely legit. Rooting for you guys! Our season was over 3 games ago lol.

Q2 0:55 · A Pittsburgh fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 12:25Mallory runs for a touchdown as Miami fans declare him the best running backOkay its getting obvious Mallory is our best RBr/CFB game threadMallory looking incredible.r/CFB game thread
Q2 1:50Miami fans declare Malachi Toney the best player in college football after his touchdownToney is the best player in CFB. Dude is limping and still betterr/CFB game thread**TONEY YOU ARE RIDICULOUS!!!**r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:55Mensah passes to Mueller for a touchdown, extending Miami's lead to 31-7
Q4 9:23Fans argue officials robbed Pitt of a clear touchdown on Cook's catchThat’s a touchdown, stupid callr/CFB game threadPitt got robbed.r/CFB game thread

Miami’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Miami -20.5), at 94% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Miami or Pittsburgh flair (1,005 and 251); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Miami scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Pittsburgh on 3 of its 13.

Miami’s drives are teal, Pittsburgh’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

Miami’s chance to make the playoff rose from 79% to 81%.

Make the playoff

Pittsburgh · lost1% → ▼0%

Miami · won79% → ▲81%

Win the conference

Pittsburgh · lost1% → ▼0%

Miami · won67% → ▲68%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Pittsburgh plays vs Georgia Tech on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. Miami plays at North Carolina on Sat Oct 31 with an 81% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Miami 52, Pittsburgh 23

Miami covered −20.5 by 8.5. The total, 75, went over 50.5.

Team totals	Pittsburgh	Miami
Total yards	403	506
Passing	21 of 35, 334 yds	31 of 37, 387 yds
Rushing	26 for 69 yds	39 for 119 yds
First downs	18	25
Third down	4 of 12	10 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 2	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	6 for 54 yds	10 for 77 yds
Time of possession	23:40	36:20

Pittsburgh leaders

Passing Holden Geriner 18 of 32, 268 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Damon Ferguson Jr. 9 for 39 yds, 1 TD; La'Vell Wright 4 for 11 yds
Receiving Cataurus Hicks 5 for 149 yds, 1 TD; Cam Sapp 1 for 49 yds, 1 TD

Miami leaders

Passing Darian Mensah 31 of 37, 387 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Javian Mallory 7 for 47 yds, 2 TD; Mark Fletcher Jr. 13 for 41 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Malachi Toney 16 for 194 yds, 3 TD; Vandrevious Jacobs 3 for 50 yds

No rain, gusts to 29 mph

82° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 15 mph from the north-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 29

A 29 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

October game-day temperatures at Hard Rock Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left12:08 p.m.

Pittsburgh 0, Miami 0 · Miami 94% to win

no rain · wind 11 mph from the north-northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 18 · 82°

Ferguson 1-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Hollywood/n. Perry airport, 2.9 miles away, and Miami/opa Locka airport, 4.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Pittsburgh · 5-2

Rated 47th in our preseason ratings, 48th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 2-point win over Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog.

L 21-27 @ Boston College No. 116 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 17-21 vs North Carolina No. 67 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 35-33 @ Virginia Tech No. 46 of 668 teams

won by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 59-0 vs Bucknell No. 247 of 668 teams

won by 59 as a 54.5-point favorite

W 27-13 vs Syracuse No. 125 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 12-7 vs UCF No. 93 of 668 teams

won by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 59-14 vs Miami (OH) No. 81 of 668 teams

won by 45 as a 16.5-point favorite

Last three games

Miami · 6-0

Rated 10th in our preseason ratings, 5th now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 43-35 vs Florida State No. 57 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 41-13 @ ClemsonTop 25 No. 30 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 14-point favorite

W 52-3 vs Central Michigan No. 130 of 668 teams

won by 49 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 33-20 @ Wake ForestTop 25 No. 73 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 77-7 vs Florida A&M No. 216 of 668 teams

won by 70 as a 59.5-point favorite

W 45-6 @ Stanford No. 93 of 668 teams

won by 39 as a 24.5-point favorite

Week by week

Miami

Wk 2Wvs Florida A&M77-7
Wk 3Wat Wake Forest33-20
Wk 4Wvs Central Michigan52-3
Wk 5Wat Clemson41-13
Wk 7Wvs Florida State43-35

Pittsburgh

Wk 3Wvs Syracuse27-13
Wk 4Wvs Bucknell59-0
Wk 5Wat Virginia Tech35-33
Wk 6Lvs North Carolina17-21
Wk 7Lat Boston College21-27

Power rating by week

Miami is rated 9.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Miami’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Miami’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh’s defense
Miami offense, 84th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 3rd
Miami’s passing EPA against Pittsburgh’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 33rd
Miami’s EPA/play against Pittsburgh’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 74th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

PittsburghMiami

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Miami leads the series 30-12-1

43 meetings since 1950 · Miami won the last meeting

2025Miami 38-7
2022Pittsburgh 42-16
2021Miami 38-34
2020Miami 31-19
2019Miami 16-12

Each line is Miami’s chance to win through that meeting. Miami is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (33rd percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Miami favored by 20.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Miami by 20.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Pittsburgh.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Miami is worth +1.2 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 8th percentile.

71% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (34-14 home, 26-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.5 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,001 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Pittsburgh 24, Miami 14Nov 24, 2017

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Miami1st4-0
Pittsburgh8th2-2

Full ACC standings

No. 1 Miami routs Pittsburgh 52-23