Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 51-0vs UTEP | 11/17 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 13.2 | 91.5 | Season-high 225 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 10-17@ Michigan | 17/33 | 189 | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 61.1 | |
| Total | 28/50 | 414 | 4 | 1 | 9.4 | 76.3 |
#10
John Mateer
John Mateer broke his thumb, then kept playing. The numbers that survived that wreckage — 91st-percentile rushing touchdown rate, 57th-percentile explosive pass rate — tell you what the healthy version looks like. He's back in Norman for 2026, and the SEC should take note.
6′1″ · 224 lb · Little Elm, TX
CFB Index 63 · #39 of 146 QBsHigh confidencePOTY finalist (model)Returning to Oklahoma for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #39 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
414
passing yards · 2026
4 TD · 1 INT · 8.3 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 21 car · 197 yds · 1 TD -- top 1% rushing yards game. -- Best game: 225 pass yds, 3 TD, 7 rush yds, vs UTEP
The play that turned itSwung Oklahoma from 40% to 86% to win.LSU at Oklahoma · 17-13
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
John Mateer broke his thumb, then kept playing. The numbers that survived that wreckage — 91st-percentile rushing touchdown rate, 57th-percentile explosive pass rate — tell you what the healthy version looks like. He's back in Norman for 2026, and the SEC should take note.
- Signed as a 3-star recruit to Washington State in 2022.
- Transferred from Washington State to Oklahoma in 2025.
Aura™ · Him Watch
Aura tax
+37aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 84th percentile of QBs; the tape says
48th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=239
— more hype than the tape.Aura — fan perception84th pctl
Production — on-field48th pctl
n=239 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Fans hotter than the country
His own fans read him warmer than the wider college football conversation does — a gap of 46.9 points in belief.
30.2own fans
-16.7national conversation
John Mateer is gonna win heisman and then have an extremely weird nfl career, just like all the great Sooner qbs before him
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
610 windows · 2026 fan posts
john×53.2mateer×124.6oklahoma×9.7sooners×140.2arbuckle×1868.7ass×60.9hurt×18.7takes×15.6
“Our season is fucked. Blessed with a BV defense, cursed with a non-existent offense. We should benched John Mateer”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
The story
Mateer arrived at Oklahoma as the Washington State transfer nobody in the SEC had film on, and for the first month of 2025 he looked like the most dangerous quarterback in the country. Then came the broken throwing hand against the Tigers, and what followed was 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on a compromised release — numbers that understate both how good he'd been and how bad the injury was.
The play-by-play data cuts through the noise. As a runner, Mateer graded at the 87th percentile in rushing touchdown rate and the 89th in success rate on scrambles and designed runs — he converts, he doesn't just accumulate. As a passer, his 57th-percentile explosive pass rate signals genuine downfield ability; the 59th-percentile EPA per dropback is the injury hangover, not the baseline. The 45th-percentile interception rate is the number that has to move in 2026, and it almost certainly will with a healthy hand.
He has returned for his final season with Ben Arbuckle calling plays in Year 2 together. He's on the Maxwell and Heisman preseason watch lists, the weapons around him are better, and the system fits his dual-threat profile as well as any offense in college football. The question isn't whether the talent is there. It's whether the thumb is.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Mateer is a dual-threat whose running game grades elite by every efficiency measure — 87th percentile in rushing touchdown rate (he punches it in), 89th in rushing success rate (he moves the chains), 83rd in EPA per carry (he generates value on the ground). As a passer he lives over the top: an 57th-percentile explosive pass rate says he's willing to attack downfield and has the arm to make it work. The tension is turnover rate — a 45th-percentile interception rate in 2025 that tracked almost exactly with the moment his thumb broke. At 6'0.5", 200 pounds, he's not a bruiser but he's slippery enough to make defenses account for him on every snap, which opens the windows his receivers need.
Written by our staff.
2022
- Signed with Washington State3-star out of Little Elm
202512 games
The role got bigger.
- Entered the portal
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
1 coach2022–2026
Oklahoma
Played his entire career under Brent Venables.
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2022Washington State7-6HC: Jake Dickert · Pass-leaning
2023Washington State5-7HC: Jake Dickert · Pass-leaning
2024Washington State8-5HC: Pete Kaligis · Run-leaning
2025Oklahoma10-3HC: Brent Venables · Balanced
2026Oklahoma1-1HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning, slow tempo
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: yards / att (92nd percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Passing profile
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
51 of 50 attempts matched to play-by-play
51 of 51 attempts charted for true throw depth
Adjusted ANY/A
8.0427 of 75 QBsSack rate
5.7%47 of 75 QBsSacked on 5.7% of dropbacks (47 of 75) — and still 27 of 75 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
20% of attempts (10)
80%comp
Air -2.7 · YAC 11.4 avg
Short · 0–9 air yds
35% of attempts (18)
61%comp
Air 4.6 · YAC 6.1 avg
Middle · 10–19 air yds
24% of attempts (12)
50%comp1 INT
Air 14.0 · YAC 6.0 avg
Deep · 20+ air yds
22% of attempts (11)
36%comp
Air 25.0 · YAC 7.5 avg
Overall 56.9% completion on 51 attempts · 36% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 207 YDS/g, 2.0 TD/g, 9.4 YPA, 0.5 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brent Venables
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
POTY finalist (model)
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
2026 outlook
Heisman market1.8%full market ›
In the mix for All-SEC
Based on 2025: #9 of 16 SEC QBs
How the All-SEC estimate is computed
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oklahoma | 28 | 50 | 56.0% | 414 | 8.3 | 4 | 1 | 148.0 | 52 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Oklahoma | 247 | 397 | 62.2% | 2,885 | 7.3 | 14 | 11 | 129.4 | 51 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Washington State | 224 | 347 | 64.6% | 3,139 | 9.0 | 29 | 7 | 164.1 | 72 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Washington State | 13 | 17 | 76.5% | 225 | 13.2 | 2 | 1 | 214.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Washington State | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 32 | 16.0 | 1 | 0 | 399.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 514 | 813 | 63.2% | 6,695 | 8.2 | 50 | 20 | 147.8 | 60 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oklahoma | 16 | 52 | 3.2 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Oklahoma | 149 | 431 | 2.9 | 8 | -- |
| 2024 | Washington State | 178 | 826 | 4.6 | 15 | -- |
| 2023 | Washington State | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 3 | -- |
| 2022 | Washington State | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 368 | 1,460 | 4.0 | 26 | -- |
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 51–0
vs UTEP
225 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 91.5 · 7 rush yds (3 car)
Dominant 51-point win at home against UTEP.
With I. Sategna — 4 rec · 76 yds · 1 TD · T. Sandell — 33 LONG · 100 PCT · 11 PTS
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 1 · UTEP · 3&1 · Q3 · EPA +4.52(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #11 T.Harris caught at UTEP20, for 48 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:22, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
- Week 1 · UTEP · 2&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.60(11:54) #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at UTEP07, for 34 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:47, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
- Week 1 · UTEP · 2&5 · Q1 · EPA +3.38(01:08) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at UTEP21, for 40 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:01, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
- Week 2 · Michigan · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.35(00:53) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 25, for 43 yards to the UOM40 (#0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Michigan · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA -3.34(13:32) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #3 P.Livingstone caught at UOM38, for 8 yards to the UOM27 fumbled by #3 P.Livingstone at UOM26 forced by #7 C.Bracy recovered by UOM #18 T.Bowles at UOM27 #18 T.Bowles return 2 yards to the UOM29 (#14 E.Thomas)
- Week 2 · Michigan · 2&15 · Q3 · EPA +2.88(10:28) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at OU 40, for 17 yards to the OU 49 (#4 C.Taylor), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Michigan · 2&6 · Q3 · EPA +2.76(08:36) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #17 M.Alleyne caught at UOM00, for 22 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
- Week 1 · UTEP · 3&5 · Q2 · EPA +2.45(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #89 H.Hansen caught at UTEP40, for 15 yards to the UTEP36 (#12 D.Howard), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Michigan · 2&8 · Q2 · EPA +2.25(14:58) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 45, for 16 yards to the UOM46 (#7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Michigan · 3&8 · Q3 · EPA +2.19(12:14) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 26, for 25 yards to the OU 37 (#4 C.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Mateer is a dual-threat whose running game grades elite by every efficiency measure — 87th percentile in rushing touchdown rate (he punches it in), 89th in rushing success rate (he moves the chains), 83rd in EPA per carry (he generates value on the ground). As a passer he lives over the top: an 57th-percentile explosive pass rate says he's willing to attack downfield and has the arm to make it work. The tension is turnover rate — a 45th-percentile interception rate in 2025 that tracked almost exactly with the moment his thumb broke. At 6'0.5", 200 pounds, he's not a bruiser but he's slippery enough to make defenses account for him on every snap, which opens the windows his receivers need.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
2026 Outlook
Oklahoma
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Oklahoma · editorial
Returning around him
- 63% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 7 Oklahoma players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (16 in / 29 out)
2026 Award watch
- Davey O'Brien
- Heisman Watch
- Maxwell Watch
Oklahoma · Last season: 10-3 (AP #8) · Talent rank #17 · 2026 recruiting class #15
DNA match
Player DNA
Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Brown’s 2021 season.
Matches Anthony on
TD rate
Yards / attempt
Height
Differs from Anthony on
INT rate (higher)
Rush yards / carry (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jaren Hall’s path through BYU.
89%match
NFL Rd 5
Matches Jaren on
Height
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Rocco Becht's senior season at Iowa State (2025).
Differs from Rocco on
Weight (higher)
Rush usage (higher)
TD rate (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like John Mateer
Heisman trajectory
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#13 in market · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #17
Peaked at #17 this season.
Background
Season GP-GS COMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD INT LONG RUSH YDS AVG TD LONG 2022 1-0 2 2 100.0 32 32.0 1 0 27 4 58 14.5 0 37 2023 11-0 13 17 76.5 235 21.4 2 1 72 21 93 4.4 3 15 2024 12-12 224 347 64.6 3,139 261.6 29 7 59 178 826 4.6 15 68 2025 12-12 247 397 62.2 2,885 240.4 14 11 87 149 431 2.9 8 51 Caree...
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology