West Virginia 24-20 TCU (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: West Virginia · TCU

West Virginia5-324

TCU3-420Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas · Crowd 36,216

West Virginia beat TCU 24-20 as a 10-point underdog.

We had TCU favored. West Virginia won.

Next: West Virginia at Texas Tech, Sat Nov 7

Next: TCU vs Kansas, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · TCU favored by 6

Welp my flabbers are gasted

A West Virginia fan

How it swung

The turning point: Craig sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumbles (Q4, 0:34). West Virginia went from 48% to 72% to win. Fans right then: “WOW! Our defense is still absolutely terrible. TCU offense is equally terrible. Yet, our defense earned this one today” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave West Virginia an 8% chance, and the closing betting line (West Virginia was a 10-point underdog) put it at 21%.

FinalWest Virginia 24-20 TCUWest Virginia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 1:14Craig 15-yd pass to HayesWest Virginia 52% → 35% (−17)
2Q4 0:34FumbleCraig sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesWest Virginia 48% → 72% (+24)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 1:14Craig 15-yd pass to HayesTCU 48% → 65% (+17)
2Q4 0:34FumbleCraig sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesTCU 52% → 28% (−24)

WOW! Our defense is still absolutely terrible. TCU offense is equally terrible. Yet, our defense earned this one today

Q4 0:44 · A West Virginia fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:56Hawkins throws incomplete deep pass to Epps, frustrating West Virginia fansFFS, all the circus catches Epps made last week and he can't get that?r/CFB game threadbro that was a tdr/CFB game thread
Q2 1:04Ladies and gents, we have ourselves a sickos gamer/CFB game thread
Q3 7:41Latimer sacks Craig for 13 yards as WVU fans praise the defenseI can see why TCU fans are tuned out. This offense is a train wreck.r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:44WVU defense sacks Craig, forces fumble, Cutter recovers to seal winDefense and Alley bailed RR out todayr/CFB game thread

West Virginia’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (TCU -10), at 18% for West Virginia (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a TCU or West Virginia flair (75 and 330); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show West Virginia’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

West Virginia scored on 4 of its 11 drives; TCU on 4 of its 10.

West Virginia’s drives are teal, TCU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From TCU’s side

TCU’s best moment: Craig 15-yd pass to Hayes (Q4 1:14). It lifted TCU’s win chance by 17 points.

How TCU fans took it: “CLASSIC JADEN CRAIG SMHHHHH” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

6 lead changes. The winner fell to 10%.

What it cost

TCU’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

West Virginia · won0% → 0%

TCU · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

TCU plays vs Kansas on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

West Virginia 24, TCU 20

West Virginia covered +10 by 14. The total, 44, stayed under 58.5.

Team totals	West Virginia	TCU
Total yards	265	484
Passing	7 of 15, 79 yds	33 of 47, 372 yds
Rushing	43 for 186 yds	35 for 112 yds
First downs	17	29
Third down	4 of 12	8 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	1	3
Penalties	5 for 49 yds	8 for 81 yds
Time of possession	22:24	37:36

West Virginia leaders

Passing Michael Hawkins Jr. 7 of 15, 79 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Cam Cook 18 for 90 yds; Michael Hawkins Jr. 20 for 87 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Prince Strachan 2 for 24 yds; John Neider 2 for 21 yds

TCU leaders

Passing Jaden Craig 33 of 47, 372 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jon Denman 15 for 58 yds; Jaden Craig 12 for 26 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Kari Ashley 6 for 118 yds; Jordan Dwyer 10 for 113 yds

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 81°.

October game-day temperatures at Amon G. Carter Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:34 left2:15 p.m.

West Virginia 24, TCU 20 · TCU 28% to win

no rain · 81°

Craig sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumbles

Measured at Fort Worth Nas airport, 6.3 miles away, and Fort Worth/meacham airport, 7.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

West Virginia · 4-3

Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 147th now, up 35 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 45-42 vs Cincinnati No. 87 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 31-52 vs ArizonaTop 25 No. 19 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 42-45 @ Iowa State No. 112 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog

L 24-41 vs Oklahoma StateTop 25 No. 148 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-27 @ VirginiaTop 25 No. 50 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 52-7 vs UT Martin No. 171 of 668 teams

won by 45 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 31-24 vs Coastal Carolina No. 228 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

Last three games

TCU · 3-3

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 35th now, up 14 spots.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 11-point win over Baylor as a 3.5-point underdog.

W 17-6 @ Baylor No. 31 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 10-17 vs BYUTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 13-21 @ UCF No. 80 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 31-7 vs Arkansas State No. 151 of 668 teams

won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Grambling No. 184 of 668 teams

won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite

L 10-15 vs North Carolina No. 127 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

Week by week

TCU

Wk 2Wvs Grambling63-7
Wk 3Wvs Arkansas State31-7
Wk 4Lat UCF13-21
Wk 5Lvs BYU10-17
Wk 7Wat Baylor17-6

West Virginia

Wk 3Wat Virginia38-27
Wk 4Lvs Oklahoma State24-41
Wk 5Lat Iowa State42-45
Wk 6Lvs Arizona31-52
Wk 7Wvs Cincinnati45-42

Power rating by week

TCU is rated 11.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: TCU’s passing EPA against West Virginia, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

TCU’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense
TCU offense, 63rd percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th
TCU’s explosive plays against West Virginia’s defense
TCU offense, 65th percentile · West Virginia defense, 18th
TCU’s success rate against West Virginia’s defense
TCU offense, 53rd percentile · West Virginia defense, 6th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

West VirginiaTCU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

West Virginia leads the series 8-6

14 meetings since 1984 · TCU won the last meeting

2025TCU 23-17
2023West Virginia 24-21
2022TCU 41-31
2021West Virginia 29-17
2020West Virginia 24-6

Each line is TCU’s chance to win through that meeting. TCU is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

West Virginia fans are in a better mood than TCU fans (67th percentile vs 42nd among FBS fanbases), even with TCU favored.

TCU favored by 10 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

TCU by 10, on the usual path until 10:16 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward TCU.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

TCU is worth +4.6 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.

59% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (27-19 home, 22-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.8 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,081 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

West Virginia 24, TCU 21Sep 30, 2023

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

TCU9th1-2
West Virginia14th1-3

Full Big 12 standings

West Virginia upsets TCU 24-20