Iowa State 51-49 Oklahoma State (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oklahoma State · Iowa State

No. 24 Oklahoma State5-349

Iowa State4-451Final

Sat, Oct 31 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa · Crowd 50,295

Iowa State beat No. 24 Oklahoma State 51-49 as a 10-point underdog.

We had Oklahoma State favored. Iowa State won.

Next: Oklahoma State at Kansas State, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET · Oklahoma State favored by 4

Next: Iowa State at Baylor, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · Iowa State underdog by 10

How it swung

The turning point: Konrardy 34-yd field goal, Iowa State goes ahead 51-49 (Q4, 0:00). Iowa State went from 30% to 100% to win. Fans right then: “Rogers got a ranked win the same day Campbell got his first conference win..... EDit: I meant on the sAme day.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa State a 32% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa State was a 10-point underdog) put it at 21%.

75-yard TD run

Oklahoma State · Q3 5:2975-yard TD run

Iowa State · Q4 11:08

FinalIowa State 51-49 Oklahoma StateIowa State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The five plays that swung it

1Q2 12:17Raynor 2-yd TD pass to Miller, ties it 14-14Iowa State 17% → 43% (+26)
2Q4 11:19Mestemaker 41-yd TD pass to Bowick, cuts it to 38-35Iowa State 81% → 50% (−31)
3Q4 11:08Flora 75-yd TD run, Iowa State leads 45-35Iowa State 50% → 85% (+35)
4Q4 0:53Mestemaker 7-yd TD pass to Young, Oklahoma State goes ahead 49-48Iowa State 53% → 18% (−35)
5Q4 0:00Konrardy 34-yd field goal, Iowa State goes ahead 51-49Iowa State 30% → 100% (+70)

The five plays that swung it

1Q2 12:17Raynor 2-yd TD pass to Miller, ties it 14-14Oklahoma State 83% → 57% (−26)
2Q4 11:19Mestemaker 41-yd TD pass to Bowick, cuts it to 38-35Oklahoma State 19% → 50% (+31)
3Q4 11:08Flora 75-yd TD run, Iowa State leads 45-35Oklahoma State 50% → 15% (−35)
4Q4 0:53Mestemaker 7-yd TD pass to Young, Oklahoma State goes ahead 49-48Oklahoma State 47% → 82% (+35)
5Q4 0:00Konrardy 34-yd field goal, Iowa State goes ahead 51-49Oklahoma State 70% → 0% (−70)

Rogers got a ranked win the same day Campbell got his first conference win..... EDit: I meant on the sAme day.

Q4 0:31 · An Iowa State fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 10:51Jaylen Raynor throws 43-yard touchdown pass to Polite, putting Iowa State ahead 21-14it doesnt has to be polite.......r/CFB game thread
Q4 10:29Fans react to Mestemaker's pass to Young for a first downHis agent needs to show this play on his draft tape. Teams want an insight into his character and effort? You see it on this play.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:34Officials review Hawkins run, rule no horse collar, OSU scores TDI don't understand how Hawkins stays up as long as he doesr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:35Fans mock broadcast camera for missing Goodwin's interception of MestemakerThis is why Mestemaker needs to stay another year.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:11Wyatt Young's unsportsmanlike penalty for yelling at fans helps OSU scoreWait telling fans “shut up” is a 15 yard penalty? lol that’s actually ridiculousr/CFB game threadWow I don’t like the flag for chirping the fansr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:31Iowa State fans storm the field after Konrardy's game-winning field goal

Iowa State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oklahoma State -10), at 34% for Iowa State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Iowa State or Oklahoma State flair (784 and 912); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Iowa State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Iowa State scored on 9 of its 14 drives; Oklahoma State on 7 of its 12.

Iowa State’s drives are teal, Oklahoma State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oklahoma State’s side

Oklahoma State’s best moment: Mestemaker 7-yd TD pass to Young, Oklahoma State goes ahead 49-48 (Q4 0:53). It lifted Oklahoma State’s win chance by 35 points.

How Oklahoma State fans took it: “People ask me who my least favorite team is now that Oklahoma is gone. I tell them Iowa State. They don’t understand. I understand.” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Busy

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Iowa State fans

flora“Flora is deceivingly hard to close down on both because of his stride and because of his pigmentation”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: field, sure, now, tonight.

Too close to call on 49% of plays. The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.

What it cost

Oklahoma State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Oklahoma State · lost1% → ▼0%

Iowa State · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Oklahoma State · lost1% → ▼0%

Iowa State · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Oklahoma State plays at Kansas State on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Iowa State 51, Oklahoma State 49

Iowa State covered +10 by 12. The total, 100, went over 58.5.

Team totals	Oklahoma State	Iowa State
Total yards	533	581
Passing	27 of 42, 323 yds	18 of 28, 309 yds
Rushing	32 for 210 yds	44 for 272 yds
First downs	27	24
Third down	8 of 12	8 of 15
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	3 for 25 yds	7 for 62 yds
Time of possession	25:13	34:47

Oklahoma State leaders

Passing Drew Mestemaker 27 of 42, 323 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Caleb Hawkins 25 for 194 yds, 2 TD; Drew Mestemaker 4 for 16 yds
Receiving Justin Bowick 7 for 124 yds, 2 TD; Caleb Hawkins 6 for 81 yds, 1 TD

Iowa State leaders

Passing Jaylen Raynor 18 of 28, 309 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Aiden Flora 29 for 221 yds, 2 TD; Jaylen Raynor 12 for 48 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jamal Polite Jr. 6 for 171 yds, 1 TD; Cameron Pettaway 1 for 40 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

61° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 13

The usual here around this date is 48°, with about 7 in 10 games between 37° and 61°.

October game-day temperatures at Jack Trice Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left9:59 p.m.

Oklahoma State 49, Iowa State 51 · Iowa State 100% to win

no rain · wind 5 mph from the southeast · 58°

Konrardy 34-yd field goal, Iowa State goes ahead 51-49

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Oklahoma State · 5-2

Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 75th now, up 187 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 57-24 vs Colorado No. 115 of 668 teams

won by 33 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 32-35 @ HoustonTop 25 No. 13 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 4-point underdog

W 42-28 vs UCF No. 65 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 41-24 @ West Virginia No. 150 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 59-0 vs Murray State No. 260 of 668 teams

won by 59 as a 56.5-point favorite

W 39-31 vs OregonTop 25 No. 5 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 10-24 @ Tulsa No. 113 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

Last three games

Iowa State · 3-4

Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 110th now, up 52 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 3-39 @ ArizonaTop 25 No. 15 of 668 teams

lost by 36 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 10-24 @ BYUTop 25 No. 10 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 45-42 vs West Virginia No. 158 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

L 17-31 vs UtahTop 25 No. 23 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 55-7 vs Bowling Green No. 152 of 668 teams

won by 48 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-16 @ IowaTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog

W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri State No. 232 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Iowa State

Wk 3Wvs Bowling Green55-7
Wk 4Lvs Utah17-31
Wk 5Wvs West Virginia45-42
Wk 6Lat BYU10-24
Wk 8Lat Arizona3-39

Oklahoma State

Wk 3Wvs Murray State59-0
Wk 4Wat West Virginia41-24
Wk 6Wvs UCF42-28
Wk 7Lat Houston32-35
Wk 8Wvs Colorado57-24

Power rating by week

Oklahoma State is rated 3.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma State’s EPA/play against Iowa State, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma State’s EPA/play against Iowa State’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 91st percentile · Iowa State defense, 18th
Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against Iowa State’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 94th percentile · Iowa State defense, 30th
Iowa State’s explosive plays against Oklahoma State’s defense
Iowa State offense, 76th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 32nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Oklahoma StateIowa State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Oklahoma State leads the series 34-22-3

59 meetings since 1926 · Iowa State has won the last 2

2025Iowa State 20-13
2023Iowa State 34-27
2022Oklahoma State 20-14
2021Iowa State 24-21
2020Oklahoma State 24-21

Each line is Iowa State’s chance to win through that meeting. Iowa State is 3-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa State fans are in a better mood than Oklahoma State fans (74th percentile vs 29th among FBS fanbases), even with Oklahoma State favored.

Oklahoma State favored by 10 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma State by 10, on the usual path until 0:44 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Oklahoma State.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Iowa State is worth +4.3 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

66% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (33-17 home, 21-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.9 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 446 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Iowa State 24, Oklahoma State 21Oct 23, 2021

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Iowa State13th1-3
Oklahoma State4th3-1

Full Big 12 standings

Iowa State upsets No. 24 Oklahoma State 51-49