East Carolina beats Temple 17-9

Temple2-69
East Carolina4-417Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, N.C. · Crowd 30,213ESPN+

East Carolina beat Temple 17-9.

We had East Carolina favored. It won.

Next: Temple at Navy, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET · Temple underdog by 7.5

Next: East Carolina vs South Florida, Fri Nov 6 · 7:30 PM ET · East Carolina favored by 1.5

The comish is at this game. Get him in that conversation.
An East Carolina fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave East Carolina a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (East Carolina was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Favored the whole way: East Carolina never fell below 60%.

Temple never had better than a 40% chance.

FinalEast Carolina 17-9 TempleEast Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfEast CarolinaWon17-9ScoresChatterquietsteadysteadysteadyquietquietquietquietsteadysteadysteadyloudquietloudest stretchsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudest stretchsteadyloudloudest stretchloudloudsteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadyquietquietsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudquietsteadyquietloudsteadyloudsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadyloudloudloudest stretchloudest stretchloudsteadysteady
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfEast CarolinaWon17-9ScoresChatterquietsteadysteadysteadyquietquietquietquietsteadysteadysteadyloudquietloudest stretchsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudest stretchsteadyloudloudest stretchloudloudsteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadyquietquietsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudquietsteadyquietloudsteadyloudsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadyloudloudloudest stretchloudest stretchloudsteadysteady
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfEast CarolinaLost9-17ScoresChatterquietsteadysteadysteadyquietquietquietquietsteadysteadysteadyloudquietloudest stretchsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudest stretchsteadyloudloudest stretchloudloudsteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadyquietquietsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudquietsteadyquietloudsteadyloudsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadyloudloudloudest stretchloudest stretchloudsteadysteady
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfEast CarolinaLost9-17ScoresChatterquietsteadysteadysteadyquietquietquietquietsteadysteadysteadyloudquietloudest stretchsteadysteadyloudest stretchloudest stretchsteadyloudloudest stretchloudloudsteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadysteadyquietquietsteadysteadyquietsteadyloudquietsteadyquietloudsteadyloudsteadyquietquietsteadysteadysteadyquietsteadyloudloudloudest stretchloudest stretchloudsteadysteady

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

This is the best midfield logo in the country

Q2 14:21 · A Temple fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 14:21
  2. Q2 9:21Temple fans criticize ECU for going for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goalWhy is ECU even bothering to pass? Just run it up the middle every down, we literally cannot stop anything.r/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 5:22Fans rage at the personal foul flag on Temple during East Carolina's drivePick that one up too, it's only fairr/CFB game threadIf there is no penalty, then why throw the fucking flag? Is it sheer incompetence or just some good old fashioned CYA in the event that Jim Bob side judge saw something slightly…r/CFB game thread
East Carolina’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (East Carolina -4), at 69% for East Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.

Every drive

East Carolina scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Temple on 3 of its 10.

East Carolina’s drives are teal, Temple’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Temple: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntEast Carolina: Punt, from 92 yards out to 84PuntTemple: Missed field goal, from 38 yards out to 23Missed FGEast Carolina: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Punt, from 73 yards out to 66PuntQ2East Carolina: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 15DownsTemple: Field goal, from 85 yards out to 23Field goalEast Carolina: Field goal, from 40 yards out to 2Field goalTemple: End of half, from 75 yards out to 75End of halfQ3East Carolina: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 28Field goalEast Carolina: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsTemple: Interception, from 60 yards out to 60InterceptionEast Carolina: Punt, from 53 yards out to 50PuntQ4Temple: Field goal, from 91 yards out to 23Field goalEast Carolina: Punt, from 80 yards out to 64PuntTemple: Interception, from 73 yards out to 57InterceptionEast Carolina: Interception, from 97 yards out to 71InterceptionTemple: Interception, from 79 yards out to 73InterceptionEast Carolina: End of game, from 35 yards out to 23End of game

When fans got loud

Loud

The biggest reaction came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthEast Carolina fansTemple fansusual

Box score

East Carolina 17, Temple 9

East Carolina covered −4 by 4. The total, 26, stayed under 51.5.

TempleEast CarolinaTotal yardsTemple 249East Carolina 352249352Passing yardsTemple 128East Carolina 130128130Rushing yardsTemple 121East Carolina 222121222First downsTemple 15East Carolina 221522TurnoversTemple 3East Carolina 131Time of possessionTemple 27:05East Carolina 32:5527:0532:55
Team totalsTempleEast Carolina
Total yards249352
Passing12 of 22, 128 yds17 of 30, 130 yds
Rushing27 for 121 yds45 for 222 yds
First downs1522
Third down1 of 74 of 12
Fourth down0 of 02 of 4
Turnovers31
Penalties3 for 25 yds5 for 31 yds
Time of possession27:0532:55

Temple leaders

  • Passing Ajani Sheppard 11 of 20, 118 yds, 3 INT
  • Rushing Ajani Sheppard 15 for 69 yds; Keveun Mason 8 for 51 yds
  • Receiving Jovanni Bermudez 3 for 48 yds; Samuel Brown V 3 for 24 yds

East Carolina leaders

  • Passing Mitch Griffis 17 of 30, 130 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing TJ Engleman 16 for 107 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Gray 15 for 58 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Landon Sides 7 for 58 yds; Nathaniel Joseph 2 for 18 yds

No rain through the game

68° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4East Carolina favoredTemple favored100%Win chanceEast CarolinaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4East Carolina favoredTemple favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:03 p.m.
Temple 0, East Carolina 0 · East Carolina 69% to win
no rain · 68°
Sheppard 6-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Pitt-greenville_aprt airport, 2.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Temple · 2-5

Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 116th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 4-point win over South Florida as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 31-38 vs Charlotte No. 201 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 17.5-point favorite

Temple lost 31-38 vs Charlotte. Chance to win started at 91%, low 6%, high 95%.

L 20-34 vs UConn No. 103 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 3.5-point favorite

Temple lost 20-34 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 68%, low under 1%, high 73%.

L 17-21 vs Army No. 44 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 4-point underdog

Temple lost 17-21 vs Army. Chance to win started at 50%, low 12%, high 72%.

L 9-27 vs Penn StateTop 25 No. 35 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 24.5-point underdog

Temple lost 9-27 vs Penn State. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 16%.

Last three games

East Carolina · 3-4

Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 96th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 34-41 @ Memphis No. 65 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 10.5-point underdog

East Carolina lost 34-41 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 84%.

L 17-30 @ UAB No. 82 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 5.5-point favorite

East Carolina lost 17-30 at UAB. Chance to win started at 60%, low under 1%, high 98%.

W 28-12 vs Rice No. 133 of 668 teams

won by 16 as a 10-point favorite

East Carolina won 28-12 vs Rice. Chance to win started at 79%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

East Carolina

Wk 3: W 20-17 at Old Dominion▲3Old Domi…Wk 4: W 42-9 vs North Carolina Central▲33N. Carol…Wk 6: W 28-12 vs Rice▲16RiceWk 7: L 17-30 at UAB▼13UABWk 8: L 34-41 at Memphis▼7Memphis
  • Wk 3Wat Old Dominion20-17
  • Wk 4Wvs North Carolina Central42-9
  • Wk 6Wvs Rice28-12
  • Wk 7Lat UAB17-30
  • Wk 8Lat Memphis34-41

Temple

Wk 3: L 48-49 at Toledo▼1ToledoWk 4: L 17-21 vs Army▼4ArmyWk 5: W 17-13 at South Florida▲4S. Flori…Wk 6: L 20-34 vs UConn▼14UConnWk 7: L 31-38 vs Charlotte▼7Charlotte
  • Wk 3Lat Toledo48-49
  • Wk 4Lvs Army17-21
  • Wk 5Wat South Florida17-13
  • Wk 6Lvs UConn20-34
  • Wk 7Lvs Charlotte31-38

Power rating by week

East Carolina is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-1-3Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8East CarolinaTemple

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Temple’s passing EPA against East Carolina, 60 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Temple’s passing EPA against East Carolina’s defense

    60 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Temple offense, 37th percentile · East Carolina defense, 97th

  2. East Carolina’s explosive plays against Temple’s defense

    40 pointsweakerstronger50th

    East Carolina offense, 42nd percentile · Temple defense, 82nd

  3. Temple’s success rate against East Carolina’s defense

    27 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Temple offense, 55th percentile · East Carolina defense, 82nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TempleEast Carolina
EPA/play, offense
Temple · 59East Carolina ·…
EPA/play, defense
Temple · 16East Carolina · 78
Success rate, offense
Temple · 55East Carolina ·…
Success rate, defense
Temple · 8East Carolina · 82
Explosive-play rate, offense
Temple · 47East Carolina · 42
Explosive-play rate, defense
Temple · 82East Carolina · 43
Rush EPA, offense
Temple · 86East Carolina · 19
Rush EPA, defense
Temple · 25East Carolina · 45
Pass EPA, offense
Temple · 37East Carolina · 16
Pass EPA, defense
Temple · 19East Carolina · 97

The series

East Carolina leads the series 12-10

22 meetings since 1982 · East Carolina has won the last 5

East Carolina wonTemple won1982: East Carolina by 131983: East Carolina by 141984: Temple by 171985: Temple by 141986: Temple by 171987: East Carolina by 51988: East Carolina by 171989: East Carolina by 71990: Temple by 31994: East Carolina by 171995: East Carolina by 102014: Temple by 102015: Temple by 102016: Temple by 272017: Temple by 242018: Temple by 432019: Temple by 102020: East Carolina by 252021: East Carolina by 422022: East Carolina by 32024: East Carolina by 222025: East Carolina by 3119822025
  • 2025East Carolina 45-14East Carolina won 45-14 at Temple. Chance to win started at 57%, low 56%, high better than 99%.
  • 2024East Carolina 56-34East Carolina won 56-34 vs Temple. Chance to win started at 70%, low 40%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022East Carolina 49-46East Carolina won 49-46 at Temple. Chance to win started at 75%, low 16%, high 94%.
  • 2021East Carolina 45-3East Carolina won 45-3 vs Temple. Chance to win started at 84%, low 79%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020East Carolina 28-3East Carolina won 28-3 at Temple. Chance to win started at 73%, low 63%, high better than 99%.

Each line is East Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

East Carolina fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (100th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 63% · Line 63%East Carolina fans · 100thTemple fans · 66thTempleEast Carolina

East Carolina favored by 4 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

East Carolina by 4, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Temple.

opened −4.5now −4

The total rose 2 points.

opened 49.5now 51.5

Spread: −4.5 → −4 · Total: 49.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

East Carolina is worth +4.0 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.

44% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (19-24 home, 17-31 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 321 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full American Athletic standings