Illinois beats Maryland 20-17

Illinois5-320
Maryland2-617Final
Sat, Oct 31 · SECU Stadium, College Park, Md. · Crowd 27,207FS1

Illinois beat Maryland 20-17.

We had Illinois favored. It won.

Next: Illinois vs Nebraska, Fri Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ET · Illinois underdog by 4.5

Next: Maryland at Purdue, Sat Nov 7 · 12:30 PM ET · Maryland underdog by 6.5

What a run by Barnett. Hope he stays in Champaign. He's going to be a good one.
An Illinois fan

How it swung

The turning point: Barnett 64-yd TD run, Illinois goes ahead 17-14 (Q4, 14:50). Illinois went from 33% to 58% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Last play we haveIllinois 20-17 MarylandPlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q447% at halfIllinoisMarylandLowest 19%Playsend12+25+25ScoresIllinoisMarylandIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudest stretchIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudest stretchMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steady
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q447% at halfIllinoisMarylandLowest 19%Playsend12ScoresIllinoisMarylandIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudest stretchIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudest stretchMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steady
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q453% at halfMarylandIllinoisHigh 81%Playsend12−25−25ScoresMarylandIllinoisMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudest stretchMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudest stretchIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loud
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q453% at halfMarylandIllinoisHigh 81%Playsend12ScoresMarylandIllinoisMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudest stretchMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: quietMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyMaryland fans: loudMaryland fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudest stretchIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: loudIllinois fans: quietIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: steadyIllinois fans: loud

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:50Barnett 64-yd TD run, Illinois goes ahead 17-14Illinois 33% → 58% (+25)
  2. 2Q4 0:00Moczulski 26-yd field goal, Illinois goes ahead 20-17Illinois 74% → 99% (+25)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:50Barnett 64-yd TD run, Illinois goes ahead 17-14Maryland 67% → 42% (−25)
  2. 2Q4 0:00Moczulski 26-yd field goal, Illinois goes ahead 20-17Maryland 26% → 1% (−25)

He 1000% scored, was fairly clear in live action, but this is not a call that we get. I also don't even think Illinois recovered.

Q1 11:28 · A Maryland fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 11:28Fans argue officials missed a Maryland touchdown on Williams' runI don’t get how they didn’t call it a td on the field it seemed obvious to mer/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 7:05Maryland fans celebrate Washington's designed run touchdown as proof of Big Ten toughnessDesigned QB runs? And they said we weren't Big Ten.r/CFB game threadBased on what i’ve seen so far 100% agreedr/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 0:24Well that was a gross football game....well anyways time to go finish the Michigan vs Rutgers football gamer/CFB game threadWe may actually still make a bowl game!r/CFB game thread
Illinois’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Illinois -3), at 52% for Illinois (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Maryland or Illinois flair (215 and 225); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Every drive

Illinois scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Maryland on 3 of its 11.

Illinois’s drives are teal, Maryland’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Illinois: Interception, from 75 yards out to 61InterceptionMaryland: Fumble, from 12 yards out to 1FumbleIllinois: Punt, from 99 yards out to 94PuntMaryland: Touchdown, from 49 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Punt, from 79 yards out to 47PuntMaryland: Interception, from 80 yards out to 23InterceptionIllinois: Missed field goal, from 82 yards out to 34Missed FGQ2Maryland: Punt, from 66 yards out to 63PuntIllinois: Punt, from 85 yards out to 85PuntMaryland: Punt, from 55 yards out to 59PuntIllinois: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownMaryland: End of half, from 75 yards out to 72End of halfQ3Maryland: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalMaryland: Punt, from 75 yards out to 43PuntIllinois: Punt, from 95 yards out to 92PuntMaryland: Punt, from 45 yards out to 44PuntIllinois: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Maryland: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 28Field goalIllinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntMaryland: Punt, from 82 yards out to 63PuntIllinois: Field goal, from 74 yards out to 7Field goal

From Maryland’s side

Maryland’s best moment: Houser intercepted by Delhomme at the UMD45, returned 43 yards (Q1 13:11). It lifted Maryland’s win chance by 18 points.

How Maryland fans took it: “When will coaches learn you don’t call a timeout on the play that gains a first down since it burns less clock” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Loud

Fans had the most to say in the opening quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthIllinois fansMaryland fansusual

Box score

Illinois 20, Maryland 17

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 37, stayed under 54.5.

IllinoisMarylandTotal yardsIllinois 407Maryland 288407288Passing yardsIllinois 223Maryland 190223190Rushing yardsIllinois 184Maryland 9818498First downsIllinois 20Maryland 172017TurnoversIllinois 1Maryland 212Time of possessionIllinois 29:46Maryland 30:1429:4630:14
Team totalsIllinoisMaryland
Total yards407288
Passing18 of 32, 223 yds19 of 29, 190 yds
Rushing33 for 184 yds29 for 98 yds
First downs2017
Third down4 of 116 of 14
Fourth down0 of 01 of 1
Turnovers12
Penalties3 for 15 yds1 for 5 yds
Time of possession29:4630:14

Illinois leaders

  • Passing Katin Houser 18 of 32, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Javari Barnett 6 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Aidan Laughery 14 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Collin Dixon 6 for 103 yds; Hudson Clement 5 for 49 yds

Maryland leaders

  • Passing Malik Washington 19 of 29, 190 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing DeJuan Williams 19 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Malik Washington 5 for 25 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Chris Durr Jr. 6 for 58 yds; Kaleb Webb 3 for 46 yds

No rain through the game

58° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 53°, with about 7 in 10 games between 46° and 61°.

October game-day temperatures at SECU Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Maryland favoredIllinois favored1%Win chanceMarylandRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Maryland favoredIllinois favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 11:49 left1:56 p.m.
Illinois 7, Maryland 14 · Maryland 81% to win
no rain · 62°
Washington 4-yd pass to Durr

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at College Park airport, 1.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Illinois · 4-3

Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 72nd now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 11-point win over Oregon as a 10.5-point underdog.

W 21-10 vs OregonTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 10.5-point underdog

Illinois won 21-10 vs Oregon. Chance to win started at 28%, low 8%, high better than 99%.

L 17-24 vs Purdue No. 106 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

Illinois lost 17-24 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 79%, low 1%, high 80%.

L 19-42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 No. 2 of 668 teams

lost by 23 as a 25.5-point underdog

Illinois lost 19-42 at Ohio State. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 27-31 vs Duke No. 67 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 6-point favorite

Illinois lost 27-31 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 74%, low 20%, high 89%.

W 42-23 vs UAB No. 55 of 668 teams

won by 19 as a 25.5-point favorite

Illinois won 42-23 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 96%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Maryland · 2-5

Rated 76th in our preseason ratings, 106th now, down 30 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 30-37 vs Rutgers No. 91 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

Maryland lost 30-37 vs Rutgers. Chance to win started at 72%, low 3%, high 91%.

L 16-45 @ Ohio StateTop 25 No. 2 of 668 teams

lost by 29 as a 31.5-point underdog

Maryland lost 16-45 at Ohio State. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 23-48 @ Nebraska No. 19 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as a 15.5-point underdog

Maryland lost 23-48 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 50%.

L 3-54 vs UCLATop 25 No. 36 of 668 teams

lost by 51 as a 2.5-point underdog

Maryland lost 3-54 vs UCLA. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 61%.

W 38-14 @ UConn No. 116 of 668 teams

won by 24 as an 11.5-point favorite

Maryland won 38-14 at UConn. Chance to win started at 72%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Maryland

Wk 3: L 26-35 vs Virginia Tech▼9Virginia…Wk 4: L 3-54 vs UCLA▼51UCLAWk 5: L 23-48 at Nebraska▼25NebraskaWk 6: L 16-45 at Ohio State▼29Ohio St.Wk 7: L 30-37 vs Rutgers▼7Rutgers
  • Wk 3Lvs Virginia Tech26-35
  • Wk 4Lvs UCLA3-54
  • Wk 5Lat Nebraska23-48
  • Wk 6Lat Ohio State16-45
  • Wk 7Lvs Rutgers30-37

Illinois

Wk 3: W 48-10 vs Southern Illinois▲38S. Illin…Wk 4: L 19-42 at Ohio State▼23Ohio St.Wk 5: L 17-24 vs Purdue▼7PurdueWk 6: W 38-37 at Michigan State▲1Michigan…Wk 8: W 21-10 vs Oregon▲11Oregon
  • Wk 3Wvs Southern Illinois48-10
  • Wk 4Lat Ohio State19-42
  • Wk 5Lvs Purdue17-24
  • Wk 6Wat Michigan State38-37
  • Wk 8Wvs Oregon21-10

Power rating by week

Illinois is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

2-0-2Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8MarylandIllinois

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s EPA/play against Maryland, 53 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Illinois’s EPA/play against Maryland’s defense

    53 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 81st percentile · Maryland defense, 28th

  2. Illinois’s rushing EPA against Maryland’s defense

    44 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 83rd percentile · Maryland defense, 39th

  3. Illinois’s explosive plays against Maryland’s defense

    37 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 79th percentile · Maryland defense, 42nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IllinoisMaryland
EPA/play, offense
Illinois · 81Maryland · 21
EPA/play, defense
Illinois · 10Maryland · 28
Success rate, offense
Illinois · 84Maryland · 21
Success rate, defense
Illinois · 13Maryland · 40
Explosive-play rate, offense
Illinois · 79Maryland · 53
Explosive-play rate, defense
Illinois · 35Maryland · 42
Rush EPA, offense
Illinois · 83Maryland · 60
Rush EPA, defense
Illinois · 28Maryland · 39
Pass EPA, offense
Illinois · 73Maryland · 9
Pass EPA, defense
Illinois · 11Maryland · 39

The series

The series is tied 2-2

4 meetings since 2018 · Illinois has won the last 2

  • 2025Illinois 24-6Maryland lost 6-24 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 19%.
  • 2023Illinois 27-24Maryland lost 24-27 vs Illinois. Chance to win started at 84%, low under 1%, high 91%.
  • 2021Maryland 20-17Maryland won 20-17 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 69%, low 19%, high better than 99%.
  • 2018Maryland 63-33Maryland won 63-33 vs Illinois. Chance to win started at 87%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Maryland’s chance to win through that meeting. Maryland is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Illinois fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (63rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 37% · Line 40%Maryland fans · 38thIllinois fans · 63rdIllinoisMaryland

Illinois favored by 3 · Total 54.5

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 52.5now 54.5

Total: 52.5 → 54.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Maryland is worth +2.9 points (±5.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile.

42% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (20-28 home, 13-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 606 miles to get here.

The story going in

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2021.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big Ten standings