Massachusetts upsets Rutgers 37-21
Team pages: Massachusetts · Rutgers
Massachusetts beat Rutgers 37-21 as a 29.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 1%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 150 games since 2018.
We had Rutgers favored. Massachusetts won.
Top comment in the game thread
Pop Watson: 9/10, 129 Yds, 3 TD
How it swung
The turning point: 59-yd punt (Q4, 11:14). Massachusetts went from 71% to 98% to win. Fans right then: “THE RUTGERS D-LINE PUSHED THE UMASS PLAYER INTO THE ENDZONE LMFAOOOOO” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Massachusetts a 5% chance, and the closing betting line (Massachusetts was a 29.5-point underdog) put it at 1%.
Massachusetts · Q2 11:4678-yard TD pass
Rutgers · Q4 7:09Massachusetts 37-21 RutgersMassachusetts wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Rutgers 21-37 MassachusettsRutgers lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:1459-yd puntMassachusetts 71% → 98% (+27)
- 2Q4 4:43PenaltySpecial teams67-yd punt, Redding returns it 11, unnecessary roughness on RutgersMassachusetts 74% → 91% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:1459-yd puntRutgers 29% → 2% (−27)
- 2Q4 4:43PenaltySpecial teams67-yd punt, Redding returns it 11, unnecessary roughness on RutgersRutgers 26% → 9% (−17)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 11:01Watson throws 31-yard touchdown pass to Griffin as fans chant ball don't lieQuoted at the top of the page.
Pop Watson wowwww
r/CFB game thread - Q4 14:50Lonergan throws interception to Reed as fans mock Rutgers' collapse
Get lonergan off the field. This dude is horrendous
r/CFB game thread - Q4 11:09Fans react to a woman knocked over on the sideline during Rutgers' interception
THE RUTGERS D-LINE PUSHED THE UMASS PLAYER INTO THE ENDZONE LMFAOOOOO
r/CFB game threadGood lord Rutgers is ASS
r/CFB game thread - Q4 4:35Fans mock Lonergan after Harmon intercepts his pass with 4:35 left
Lonergan is gonna finish the night as the second leading passer for Umass
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Rutgers -29.5), at 2% for Massachusetts (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
Massachusetts scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Rutgers on 3 of its 12.
Massachusetts’s drives are teal, Rutgers’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Rutgers’s side
Rutgers’s best moment: Lonergan 78-yd TD pass to Duff, cuts it to 30-14 (Q4 7:09). It lifted Rutgers’s win chance by 12 points.
How Rutgers fans took it: “When does the season start again?” r/CFB game thread
“Nothing would complete this game more than a safety”
How fans reacted
Steady
The fourth quarter is when fans got loud.
The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
Box score
Massachusetts 37, Rutgers 21
Massachusetts covered +29.5 by 45.5. The total, 58, went over 55.5.
| Team totals | Massachusetts | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 397 | 349 |
| Passing | 19 of 22, 197 yds | 22 of 38, 319 yds |
| Rushing | 41 for 200 yds | 25 for 30 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 18 |
| Third down | 4 of 11 | 3 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Penalties | 8 for 57 yds | 7 for 34 yds |
| Time of possession | 36:21 | 23:39 |
Massachusetts leaders
- Passing William Watson III 19 of 22, 197 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Curtis Kimmons IV 11 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Elijah Faulkner 19 for 62 yds
- Receiving Joseph Griffin Jr. 2 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Ty Harding 5 for 55 yds
Rutgers leaders
- Passing Dylan Lonergan 16 of 29, 242 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing Antwan Raymond 14 for 42 yds; Clay Thevenin 3 for 4 yds
- Receiving KJ Duff 9 for 196 yds, 3 TD; Jourdin Houston 4 for 42 yds
No rain and calm
84° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 1 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 6
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 66 other games played at SHI Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).
September game-day temperatures at SHI Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Somerville airport, 13 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Massachusetts · 0-12
Rated 258th in our preseason ratings.
L 14-45 vs Bowling Green #162 of 667
lost by 31 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 14-42 @ Ohio #71 of 667
lost by 28 as a 34.5-point underdog
L 3-45 vs Northern Illinois #184 of 667
lost by 42 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 10-44 @ Akron #145 of 667
lost by 34 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 13-38 @ Central Michigan #109 of 667
lost by 25 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 21-28 vs Buffalo #134 of 667
lost by 7 as a 16.5-point underdog
L 6-42 @ Kent State #200 of 667
lost by 36 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 3-21 vs Western Michigan #95 of 667
lost by 18 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 6-42 @ MissouriTop 25 #12 of 667
lost by 36 as a 44.5-point underdog
L 7-47 @ IowaTop 25 #41 of 667
lost by 40 as a 35.5-point underdog
L 26-27 vs Bryant #203 of 667
lost by 1 as a 16.5-point favorite
L 10-42 vs Temple #132 of 667
lost by 32 as a 2.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Rutgers · 5-7
Rated 68th in our preseason ratings.
L 36-40 vs Penn StateTop 25 #12 of 667
lost by 4 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 9-42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667
lost by 33 as a 28.5-point underdog
W 35-20 vs Maryland #74 of 667
won by 15 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 13-35 @ IllinoisTop 25 #44 of 667
lost by 22 as a 12.5-point underdog
W 27-24 @ Purdue #92 of 667
won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 10-56 vs OregonTop 25 #2 of 667
lost by 46 as an 18.5-point underdog
L 19-38 @ WashingtonTop 25 #22 of 667
lost by 19 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 28-31 @ Minnesota #37 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 28-38 vs IowaTop 25 #40 of 667
lost by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 60-10 vs Norfolk State #249 of 667
won by 50 as a 45.5-point favorite
W 45-17 vs Miami (OH) #73 of 667
won by 28 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 34-31 vs Ohio #77 of 667
won by 3 as a 15.5-point favorite
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Rutgers’s rushing EPA against Massachusetts, 59 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Rutgers’s rushing EPA against Massachusetts’s defense
Rutgers offense, 20th percentile · Massachusetts defense, 79th
Massachusetts’s EPA/play against Rutgers’s defense
Massachusetts offense, 57th percentile · Rutgers defense, 13th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Rutgers leads the series 3-2
5 meetings since 1967 · Rutgers has won the last 3
- 2019Rutgers 48-21
- 1978Rutgers 21-11
- 1976Rutgers 24-7
- 1973Massachusetts 25-22
- 1967Massachusetts 30-7
Each line is Rutgers’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Massachusetts fans are in a better mood than Rutgers fans (90th vs 14th among FBS fanbases), even with Rutgers favored.
Rutgers favored by 29.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Rutgers by 29.5, on the usual path until Q1 5:26
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Massachusetts.
Spread: −30.5 → −29.5
The books’ cut: 3.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Rutgers is worth +2.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 17th percentile.
31% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (16-35 home, 14-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 163 miles to get here.