Idaho State upsets Utah State 29-17

Team pages: Idaho State · Utah State

Idaho State2-029
Utah State0-117Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah · Crowd 20,723CBS Sports Network

Idaho State beat Utah State 29-17 as a 15.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 6%.

Winners have been down to 6% or less in about 1 of every 19 games since 2018.

We had Utah State favored. Idaho State won.

Next: Idaho State beat San Diego 59-17, Sat Sep 12

Next: Utah State lost to Washington 16-14, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Brosterhous intercepted by Shorty at the ISU01 (Q4, 0:13). Idaho State went from 82% to 60% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Idaho State a 10% chance, and the closing betting line (Idaho State was a 15.5-point underdog) put it at 11%.

FinalIdaho State 29-17 Utah StateIdaho State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q433% at halfIdaho StateUtah StateLowest 6%Won29-17Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q433% at halfIdaho StateUtah StateLowest 6%Won29-17Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q467% at halfUtah StateIdaho StateHigh 94%Lost17-29Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q467% at halfUtah StateIdaho StateHigh 94%Lost17-29Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 2:27Harsin 4-yd runIdaho State 89% → 73% (−16)
  2. 2Q4 0:13InterceptionBrosterhous intercepted by Shorty at the ISU01Idaho State 82% → 60% (−22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 2:27Harsin 4-yd runUtah State 11% → 27% (+16)
  2. 2Q4 0:13InterceptionBrosterhous intercepted by Shorty at the ISU01Utah State 18% → 40% (+22)
Idaho State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Utah State -15.5), at 12% for Idaho State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Idaho State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 5:52Hillstead 15-yd TD pass to WoodUtah State goes ahead 7-3Q1, 5:52 · Idaho State 3, Utah State 7▼3%Idaho State’s chance to win, 12% to 9%▼3%Idaho State’s chance to win, 12% to 9%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 2:39Cooke sacked for a 12-yd lossQ1, 2:39 · Idaho State 3, Utah State 7▼3%Idaho State’s chance to win, 13% to 10%▼3%Idaho State’s chance to win, 13% to 10%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q2, 8:23Cooke 1-yd TD runIdaho State goes ahead 13-7Q2, 8:23 · Idaho State 13, Utah State 7▲13%Idaho State’s chance to win, 14% to 27%▲13%Idaho State’s chance to win, 14% to 27%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q2, 8:03Hillstead intercepted by Perez at the USU33returned 28 yardsQ2, 8:03 · Idaho State 13, Utah State 7▲12%Idaho State’s chance to win, 28% to 40%▲12%Idaho State’s chance to win, 28% to 40%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q3, 4:39Hillstead 4-yd TD pass to StarlingUtah State goes ahead 17-16Q3, 4:39 · Idaho State 16, Utah State 17▼12%Idaho State’s chance to win, 30% to 18%▼12%Idaho State’s chance to win, 30% to 18%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q3, 0:25Hillstead intercepted by Shorty at the USU45returned 42 yardsQ3, 0:25 · Idaho State 19, Utah State 17▲14%Idaho State’s chance to win, 30% to 44%▲14%Idaho State’s chance to win, 30% to 44%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q4, 14:13Cooke 8-yd TD pass to JamesIdaho State leads 26-17Q4, 14:13 · Idaho State 26, Utah State 17▲15%Idaho State’s chance to win, 45% to 60%▲15%Idaho State’s chance to win, 45% to 60%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q4, 0:48Brosterhous sacked for a 3-yd lossQ4, 0:48 · Idaho State 29, Utah State 17▲10%Idaho State’s chance to win, 79% to 89%▲10%Idaho State’s chance to win, 79% to 89%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q4, 0:13Brosterhous intercepted by Shorty at the ISU01Q4, 0:13 · Idaho State 29, Utah State 17▼22%Idaho State’s chance to win, 82% to 60%▼22%Idaho State’s chance to win, 82% to 60%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Idaho State scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Utah State on 3 of its 12.

Idaho State’s drives are teal, Utah State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Idaho State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalUtah State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 31Field goalUtah State: Missed field goal, from 77 yards out to 29Missed FGQ2Idaho State: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownUtah State: Interception, from 74 yards out to 74InterceptionIdaho State: Field goal, from 5 yards out to 8Field goalUtah State: Punt, from 79 yards out to 76PuntIdaho State: Punt, from 68 yards out to 61PuntUtah State: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 10Field goalIdaho State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 80End of halfQ3Utah State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 3DownsIdaho State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 97PuntUtah State: Touchdown, from 24 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalUtah State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionIdaho State: Touchdown, from 3 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Utah State: Interception, from 73 yards out to 33InterceptionIdaho State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 78PuntUtah State: Turned over on downs, from 56 yards out to 52DownsIdaho State: Field goal, from 48 yards out to 24Field goalUtah State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 37DownsIdaho State: Punt, from 63 yards out to 55PuntUtah State: Interception, from 86 yards out to 39InterceptionIdaho State: End of game, from 99 yards out to 99End of game

From Utah State’s side

Utah State’s best moment: Brosterhous intercepted by Shorty at the ISU01 (Q4 0:13). It lifted Utah State’s win chance by 22 points.

“Playoff game in the dome this season 😎”
A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Roaring

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthIdaho State fansUtah State fans

The winner fell to 6%.

Box score

Idaho State 29, Utah State 17

Idaho State covered +15.5 by 27.5. The total, 46, stayed under 59.5.

Idaho StateUtah StateTotal yardsIdaho State 241Utah State 407241407Passing yardsIdaho State 152Utah State 245152245Rushing yardsIdaho State 89Utah State 16289162First downsIdaho State 14Utah State 291429TurnoversIdaho State 0Utah State 404Time of possessionIdaho State 26:27Utah State 33:3326:2733:33
Team totalsIdaho StateUtah State
Total yards241407
Passing18 of 33, 152 yds20 of 44, 245 yds
Rushing30 for 89 yds44 for 162 yds
First downs1429
Third down5 of 159 of 15
Fourth down1 of 11 of 4
Turnovers04
Penalties8 for 71 yds11 for 83 yds
Time of possession26:2733:33

Idaho State leaders

  • Passing Jordan Cooke 18 of 33, 152 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Carson Sudbury 3 for 37 yds; Robert Freeman IV 10 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Julian Mason 7 for 75 yds; Chedon James 5 for 27 yds, 1 TD

Utah State leaders

  • Passing McCae Hillstead 15 of 30, 178 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing Javen Jacobs 20 for 80 yds; McCae Hillstead 9 for 43 yds
  • Receiving Eli Wood 6 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Javon Robinson 3 for 31 yds

No rain and calm

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 15

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 58 other games played at Maverik Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).

September game-day temperatures at Maverik Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah State favoredIdaho State favored0%Win chanceUtah StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah State favoredIdaho State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:13 left8:38 p.m.
Idaho State 29, Utah State 17 · Utah State 40% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the east · 73°
Brosterhous intercepted by Shorty at the ISU01

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Logan-cache Airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Idaho State · 6-6

Rated 157th in our preseason ratings, 157th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 21-point win over Idaho as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 37-16 @ Idaho #187 of 667

won by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 31-3 vs Weber State #230 of 667

won by 28 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 27-17 vs Cal Poly #197 of 667

won by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 38-36 @ UC Davis #116 of 667

won by 2 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 18-31 vs Northern Arizona #168 of 667

lost by 13 as a 3-point underdog

L 14-48 @ Montana State #68 of 667

lost by 34 as a 22.5-point underdog

L 38-42 vs Montana #107 of 667

lost by 4 as a 13.5-point underdog

W 26-18 @ Northern Colorado #230 of 667

won by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 90-0 vs Lincoln (CA) #432 of 667

L 22-32 @ New Mexico #141 of 667

lost by 10 as a 17.5-point underdog

Idaho State lost 22-32 at New Mexico. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 30%.

L 24-46 @ Southern Utah #157 of 667

lost by 22 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 31-38 @ UNLV #71 of 667

lost by 7 as a 30.5-point underdog

Idaho State lost 31-38 at UNLV. Chance to win started at 2%, low 1%, high 30%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Utah State · 6-7

Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings.

L 21-34 vs Washington State #45 of 667

lost by 13 as a 1.5-point favorite

Utah State lost 21-34 vs Washington State. Chance to win started at 63%, low under 1%, high 63%.

L 24-25 vs Boise StateTop 25 #52 of 667

lost by 1 as a 1.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 24-25 vs Boise State. Chance to win started at 61%, low under 1%, high 88%.

W 28-17 @ Fresno State #117 of 667

won by 11 as a 1.5-point underdog

Utah State won 28-17 at Fresno State. Chance to win started at 37%, low 12%, high 99%.

L 26-29 @ UNLV #81 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 26-29 at UNLV. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 75%.

W 51-14 vs Nevada #209 of 667

won by 37 as a 9.5-point favorite

Utah State won 51-14 vs Nevada. Chance to win started at 81%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 14-33 @ New Mexico #107 of 667

lost by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 14-33 at New Mexico. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 39%.

W 30-25 vs San José State #110 of 667

won by 5 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 26-44 @ Hawai'i #134 of 667

lost by 18 as a 1.5-point favorite

Utah State lost 26-44 at Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 39%, low 1%, high 71%.

L 35-55 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 20 as a 24.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 35-55 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 18%.

W 48-7 vs McNeese #217 of 667

won by 41 as a 23.5-point favorite

Utah State won 48-7 vs McNeese. Chance to win started at 95%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

W 49-30 vs Air Force #140 of 667

won by 19 as a 3.5-point underdog

Utah State won 49-30 vs Air Force. Chance to win started at 48%, low 43%, high better than 99%.

L 22-44 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #19 of 667

lost by 22 as a 34.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 22-44 at Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

W 28-16 vs UTEP #117 of 667

won by 12 as a 4.5-point favorite

Utah State won 28-16 vs UTEP. Chance to win started at 67%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

The series

Utah State leads the series 15-2

17 meetings since 1919 · Utah State has won the last 6

Utah State wonIdaho State won1919: Utah State by 1361932: Utah State by 321944: Utah State by 11946: Utah State by 471977: Utah State by 281978: Utah State by 101980: Utah State by 71981: Idaho State by 261982: Utah State by 271997: Utah State by 342000: Idaho State by 32001: Utah State by 12002: Utah State by 52010: Utah State by 212014: Utah State by 202017: Utah State by 382023: Utah State by 5019192023
  • 2023Utah State 78-28Utah State won 78-28 vs Idaho State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 89%, high better than 99%.
  • 2017Utah State 51-13
  • 2014Utah State 40-20
  • 2010Utah State 38-17
  • 2002Utah State 38-33

Each line is Utah State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Utah State’s chances here.

50-50Model 90% · Line…Idaho StateUtah State

Utah State favored by 15.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

Utah State by 15.5, on the usual path until Q2 8:23

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Utah State.

opened −11.5now −15.5

The total fell 5 points.

opened 64.5now 59.5

Spread: −11.5 → −15.5 · Total: 64.5 → 59.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 84° at kickoff.

Idaho State at Utah State · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Maverik Stadium, Logan

  • 84°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 82weather score, Mixed

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 6 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Maverik Stadium that day, a 7 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 82 at 5 pm.

  • 11 am: 82, Mixed
  • 4 pm: 73, Rough
  • 5 pm: 82, Mixed (this game)
  • 6 pm: 92, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Utah State is worth +5.0 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 65th percentile.

61% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (25-16 home, 21-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,685 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 83 miles to get here.

Where next