Michigan 28-21 Rutgers (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Michigan · Rutgers

Michigan5-328

Rutgers2-621Final

Sat, Oct 31 · SHI Stadium, Piscataway, N.J. · Crowd 39,540BTN

Michigan beat Rutgers 28-21.

We had Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Michigan vs Michigan State, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Michigan favored by 13.5

Next: Rutgers at Wisconsin, Sat Nov 7 · 4:15 PM ET · Rutgers underdog by 17.5

That wasn’t kick catch interference. They still gave up an 80 yard run on third down

A Michigan fan

How it swung

The turning point: Thevenin 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q4, 11:43). Michigan went from 88% to 73% to win. Fans right then: “30+ years of watching football and I’ve never seen that call on a punt before.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Michigan an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Michigan was a 16.5-point favorite) put it at 91%.

Favored the whole way: Michigan never fell below 70%.

Rutgers never had better than a 29% chance.

FinalMichigan 28-21 RutgersMichigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q4 11:43Thevenin 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Michigan 88% → 73% (−15)

The play that swung it

1Q4 11:43Thevenin 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Rutgers 12% → 27% (+15)

30+ years of watching football and I’ve never seen that call on a punt before.

Q4 14:04 · A Michigan fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:52Michigan fans mock Kyle Whittingham for forgetting if the team turned the ball overDoes Whittingham know where he is? How does he not know if there has been a turnover in the half?r/CFB game threadKyle Whittingham belongs in a retirement homer/CFB game thread
Q3 3:11Michigan fans rage as Butkowski misses a 35-yard field goal attemptcan underwood kick?r/CFB game thread
Q4 14:04Fans argue a kick catch interference penalty on a muffed punt return is wrong
Q4 12:12Rutgers ties game 21-21 after Thevenin touchdown, sparking Michigan fan outrage50 mil bought us a team at the same level as Rutgers. That's just reality.r/CFB game threadI do not understand how this defense that has been lights out all year has just decided to play like ass and give up explosives against Rutgers.r/CFB game thread
Q4 5:44Fans praise Tommy Carr's improvisation and criticize missed holding callsTommy Carr is keeping this staff employed unfortunatelyr/CFB game threadTommy Carr is 21/26 for 257 yards and it’s a dog fight against Rutgers. This is best QB play all season. Smh. It’s this team.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:17Fans argue a DPI call on Surace's pass was OPI as Michigan puntsI don't... why would you punt there? You were ready to go for it on your own 30 in the 3rd quarter.r/CFB game thread

Michigan’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Michigan -16.5), at 80% for Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Rutgers or Michigan flair (124 and 1,421); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Michigan’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Michigan scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Rutgers on 4 of its 9.

Michigan’s drives are teal, Rutgers’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Rutgers’s side

Rutgers’s best moment: Thevenin 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q4 11:43). It lifted Rutgers’s win chance by 15 points.

How Rutgers fans took it: “Best defense in CFB? Bro yall let us score 21” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Steady

It was the fourth quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Rutgers fans

schiano“Omg Schiano called timeout to make a run at points! What is this maneuver? Are you allowed to do that?”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, don.

What it cost

Michigan’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Michigan · won1% → ▲2%

Rutgers · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Michigan plays vs Michigan State on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Michigan 28, Rutgers 21

Rutgers covered +16.5 by 9.5. The total, 49, went over 47.5.

Team totals	Michigan	Rutgers
Total yards	427	249
Passing	22 of 27, 266 yds	3 of 12, 123 yds
Rushing	45 for 161 yds	26 for 126 yds
First downs	23	9
Third down	12 of 16	3 of 10
Fourth down	0 of 0	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	7 for 90 yds	5 for 35 yds
Time of possession	39:06	20:54

Michigan leaders

Passing Tommy Carr 22 of 27, 266 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Savion Hiter 20 for 76 yds; Tommy Carr 12 for 54 yds, 2 TD
Receiving JJ Buchanan 5 for 63 yds, 1 TD; Andrew Marsh 7 for 51 yds

Rutgers leaders

Passing AJ Surace 3 of 12, 123 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Antwan Raymond 11 for 85 yds; Clay Thevenin 7 for 30 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jourdin Houston 1 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Antwan Raymond 1 for 32 yds

No rain and calm

57° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the northwest, gusts to 15

October game-day temperatures at SHI Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 11:43 left3:08 p.m.

Michigan 21, Rutgers 21 · Rutgers 27% to win

no rain · wind 5 mph from the west · 61°

Thevenin 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21

Measured at Somerville airport, 13 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Michigan · 4-3

Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 25th now.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 6-13 vs IndianaTop 25 No. 3 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 21-18 vs Penn StateTop 25 No. 46 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 6-point favorite

L 14-20 @ Minnesota No. 44 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 19-20 vs IowaTop 25 No. 16 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 52-17 vs UTEP No. 176 of 668 teams

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 17-10 vs OklahomaTop 25 No. 15 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 13-12 vs Western Michigan No. 21 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 27.5-point favorite

Last three games

Rutgers · 2-5

Rated 68th in our preseason ratings, 100th now, down 32 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Maryland as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 14-42 @ NorthwesternTop 25 No. 12 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 37-30 @ Maryland No. 101 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 15-47 vs IndianaTop 25 No. 6 of 668 teams

lost by 32 as a 24.5-point underdog

W 58-7 vs Howard No. 225 of 668 teams

won by 51 as a 42.5-point favorite

L 35-42 vs USCTop 25 No. 29 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 21-point underdog

L 21-28 @ Boston College No. 136 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3-point underdog

L 21-37 vs Massachusetts No. 244 of 668 teams

lost by 16 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Rutgers

Wk 3Lvs USC35-42
Wk 4Wvs Howard58-7
Wk 5Lvs Indiana15-47
Wk 7Wat Maryland37-30
Wk 8Lat Northwestern14-42

Michigan

Wk 3Wvs UTEP52-17
Wk 4Lvs Iowa19-20
Wk 5Lat Minnesota14-20
Wk 7Wvs Penn State21-18
Wk 8Lvs Indiana6-13

Power rating by week

Michigan is rated 8.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Rutgers’s explosive plays against Michigan, 67 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Rutgers’s explosive plays against Michigan’s defense
Rutgers offense, 99th percentile · Michigan defense, 32nd
Rutgers’s success rate against Michigan’s defense
Rutgers offense, 36th percentile · Michigan defense, 97th
Rutgers’s rushing EPA against Michigan’s defense
Rutgers offense, 31st percentile · Michigan defense, 89th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MichiganRutgers

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan leads the series 9-1

10 meetings since 2014 · Michigan has won the last 9

2023Michigan 31-7
2022Michigan 52-17
2021Michigan 20-13
2020Michigan 48-42
2019Michigan 52-0

Each line is Rutgers’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Rutgers fans are in a better mood than Michigan fans (19th percentile vs 9th among FBS fanbases), even with Michigan favored.

Michigan favored by 16.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Michigan by 16.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 274 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Michigan.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Rutgers is worth +2.2 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 18th percentile.

31% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (16-36 home, 14-30 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 496 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan 48, Rutgers 42Nov 21, 2020

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2016.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Rutgers13th1-3
Michigan14th1-3

Full Big Ten standings

Michigan beats Rutgers 28-21