The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 12:59Manning throws tipped pass to Coleman for touchdownWelcome back, cam coleman!!!!r/CFB game threadColeman hit em with the Thriller!!r/CFB game thread
Q2 12:32Mississippi State fans mourn their soul-sucking season after Ferrie misses a field goalYou guys legitimately have no idea how soul-sucking it is to be a State fanr/CFB game thread
Q2 2:15Fans argue a safety was ruled on H. Smothers' runbruh if that's not a safety football is no funr/CFB game threadNo way that’s not a safety.r/CFB game thread
Q2 1:13Texas sacks Swann, recovers fumble for touchdown to lead 17-0Big time prayers up for Swann. I think he just broke his arm. Was playing really well and clearly a smart QB. Wish him the bestr/CFB game thread
Q3 11:51Texas fans blame Arch Manning after sack fumble recovery by Mississippi StateYeah, that’s the Arch Manning I knowr/CFB game thread
Texas’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas -19.5), at 94% for Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or Mississippi State flair (1,003 and 181); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Mississippi State fans
lebby“State can pay me half as much as they’re paying Lebby and I can score the same amount of points”
review“How much you wanna bet the review this and give the ball back to Texas”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, every, getting, line.
What it cost
Texas’s chance to make the playoff rose from 75% to 79%.
Make the playoff
Mississippi State · lost1% → ▼0%
Texas · won75% → ▲79%
Win the conference
Mississippi State · lost0% → 0%
Texas · won10% → ▲11%
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Mississippi State plays vs Vanderbilt on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. Texas plays at Missouri on Sat Nov 7 with a 79% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Texas 31, Mississippi State 3
Texas covered −19.5 by 8.5. The total, 34, stayed under 50.5.
Team totals
Mississippi State
Texas
Total yards
187
280
Passing
15 of 25, 119 yds
17 of 21, 220 yds
Rushing
41 for 68 yds
32 for 60 yds
First downs
12
13
Third down
6 of 18
6 of 14
Fourth down
0 of 1
0 of 0
Turnovers
1
1
Penalties
6 for 50 yds
5 for 42 yds
Time of possession
32:28
27:32
Mississippi State leaders
Passing AJ Swann 12 of 15, 97 yds
Rushing Fluff Bothwell 17 for 49 yds; J.J. Hill 5 for 15 yds
Receiving Marquis Johnson 6 for 61 yds; Anthony Evans III 3 for 19 yds
Texas leaders
Passing Arch Manning 16 of 20, 220 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Raleek Brown 8 for 30 yds; Michael Terry III 4 for 16 yds
Receiving Emmett Mosley V 4 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Cam Coleman 2 for 61 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 8
no rain · wind 3 mph from the north-northeast · 75°
Brown 3-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Mississippi State · 4-3
Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 85th now, up 47 spots.
Texas is rated 12.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Mississippi State’s explosive plays against Texas, 57 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Mississippi State’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 39th percentile · Texas defense, 96th
Mississippi State’s EPA/play against Texas’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 37th percentile · Texas defense, 84th
Texas’s rushing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Texas offense, 13th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 70th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Mississippi StateTexas
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Texas leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 1921 · Texas has won the last 3
2025Texas 45-38
2024Texas 35-13
1998 · neutral siteTexas 38-11
1992Mississippi State 28-10
1991Mississippi State 13-6
Each line is Texas’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Texas fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (41st percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Texas favored by 19.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Texas by 19.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 274 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Mississippi State.
Spread: −20.5 → −19.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
82% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (46-10 home, 22-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.5 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 568 miles to get here.
Texas 31-3 Mississippi State
Texas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.