Michigan 17-10 Oklahoma (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oklahoma · Michigan

No. 11 Oklahoma1-110

Michigan2-017Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. · Crowd 111,240

No. 24 Michigan beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10.

We had Oklahoma favored. Michigan won.

Next: Oklahoma beat New Mexico 14-6, Sat Sep 19

Next: Michigan beat UTEP 52-17, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Blocked “into” the kicker doing some heavy lifting there

Q1 4:27 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Marshall 1-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 17-10 (Q4, 7:53). Michigan went from 60% to 85% to win. Fans right then: “Yep, that's what I expected. Mateer was overdue” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Michigan a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Michigan was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.

The edge changed hands 5 times before Michigan won it.

Up to 65% in the first quarter, then Oklahoma lost it.

FinalMichigan 17-10 OklahomaMichigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 8:30Mateer 22-yd TD pass to Alleyne, cuts it to 10-7Michigan 74% → 58% (−16)
2Q4 7:53Marshall 1-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 17-10Michigan 60% → 85% (+25)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 8:30Mateer 22-yd TD pass to Alleyne, cuts it to 10-7Oklahoma 26% → 42% (+16)
2Q4 7:53Marshall 1-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 17-10Oklahoma 40% → 15% (−25)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 11:06Officials rule targeting on Underwood run, fans call it bogusWow, refs out in force early this game.r/CFB game threadMichigan is not beating the ref allegationsr/CFB game thread
Q1 4:27Fans argue officials failed to call roughing the kicker on Miller's puntQuoted at the top of the page.That was more of a running into the kicker than the one they calledr/CFB game thread
Q1 0:47Underwood scores, fans mock Oklahoma by ranking Western MichiganUnderwood looks way better.. don't let me downr/CFB game thread
Q2 13:34Oklahoma ball boy aggressively wrestles for fumbled ball after Livingstone turnoverAs a former student manager wtf is that Oklahoma manager doing, stop wrestling for the ballr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:40Hill intercepts Mateer as fans mock the quarterback and celebrate HillYep, that's what I expected. Mateer was overduer/CFB game thread
Q4 2:12Oklahoma fans criticize Mateer's accuracy as he throws three consecutive incomplete passesI wouldn’t trust Mateer to throw a god damn birthday partyr/CFB game thread"Snap threw the timing off" ok bud lmaor/CFB game thread

Michigan’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oklahoma -5.5), at 41% for Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan or Oklahoma flair (6,008 and 3,300); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Michigan’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Michigan scored on 3 of its 11 drives; Oklahoma on 2 of its 11.

Michigan’s drives are teal, Oklahoma’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oklahoma’s side

Oklahoma’s best moment: Mateer 22-yd TD pass to Alleyne, cuts it to 10-7 (Q3 8:30). It lifted Oklahoma’s win chance by 16 points.

How Oklahoma fans took it: “Has a guy wide open and he throws it to the guy who was double covered. That says it all.” r/CFB game thread

“How good is Western Michigan?”

A Michigan fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Michigan fans

hiter“My theory is that the NCAA couldn’t give Michigan the L for fear Hiter would get ahold of it”

lie“One of these fumbles needs to go our way, goodness gracious Ball don't lie”

penalties“Honestly clean up the garbage penalties and we might be able to salvage the season”

helmet“is he putting his helmet on top of his head like teenagers do with flat brims?????????”

Oklahoma fans

mateer“lol right? You can tell they aren’t confident in Mateer throwing it. Not good.”

sucks“Everyone sucks today, but id like to highlight how disappointing our "future all-american" DTs have been.”

run“Can we please stop trying to force feed Sategna? The jet sweeps aren't working and he's not getting open. Either run the RBs or throw to the TEs.”

throwing“lol right? You can tell they aren’t confident in Mateer throwing it. Not good.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, call, back.

Too close to call on 49% of plays.

What it cost

Oklahoma’s chance to make the playoff fell from 43% to 34%.

Make the playoff

Oklahoma · lost43% → ▼34%

Michigan · won12% → ▲16%

Win the conference

Oklahoma · lost4% → ▼3%

Michigan · won3% → 3%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Michigan 17, Oklahoma 10

Michigan covered +5.5 by 12.5. The total, 27, stayed under 43.5.

Team totals	Oklahoma	Michigan
Total yards	289	263
Passing	17 of 33, 189 yds	9 of 17, 111 yds
Rushing	29 for 100 yds	41 for 152 yds
First downs	17	14
Third down	3 of 13	4 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	9 for 76 yds	11 for 90 yds
Time of possession	26:43	33:17

Oklahoma leaders

Passing John Mateer 17 of 33, 189 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing John Mateer 13 for 45 yds; Lloyd Avant 9 for 35 yds
Receiving Rocky Beers 6 for 94 yds; Trell Harris 4 for 43 yds

Michigan leaders

Passing Bryce Underwood 9 of 17, 111 yds
Rushing Bryce Underwood 18 for 87 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Marshall 11 for 32 yds, 1 TD
Receiving JJ Buchanan 2 for 48 yds; Savion Hiter 3 for 41 yds

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Michigan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 7:53 left3:14 p.m.

Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17 · Michigan 85% to win

no rain

Marshall 1-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 17-10

Measured at Ann Arbor airport, 2.9 miles away, and Detroit/willow airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Oklahoma · 10-3

Rated 17th in our preseason ratings, 19th now.

2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 24-34 vs AlabamaTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 10 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 17-13 vs LSUTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 4 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 17-6 vs MissouriTop 25 #17 of 667

won by 11 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 23-21 @ AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667

won by 2 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 33-27 @ TennesseeTop 25 #11 of 667

won by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 26-34 vs Ole MissTop 25 #8 of 667

lost by 8 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 26-7 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #29 of 667

won by 19 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 6-23 @ TexasTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 44-0 vs Kent State #218 of 667

won by 44 as a 46.5-point favorite

W 24-17 vs AuburnTop 25 #14 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 42-3 @ Temple #115 of 667

won by 39 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 24-13 vs MichiganTop 25 #15 of 667

won by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 35-3 vs Illinois State #143 of 667

won by 32 as a 38.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Michigan · 9-4

Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 18th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-41 @ TexasTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 14 as a 4-point underdog

L 9-27 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 18 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 45-20 @ Maryland #96 of 667

won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-22 @ Northwestern #63 of 667

won by 2 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 21-16 vs Purdue #88 of 667

won by 5 as a 22.5-point favorite

W 31-20 @ Michigan State #83 of 667

won by 11 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-7 vs WashingtonTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 17 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 13-31 @ USCTop 25 #15 of 667

lost by 18 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 24-10 vs Wisconsin #59 of 667

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-27 @ NebraskaTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 63-3 vs Central Michigan #164 of 667

won by 60 as a 27.5-point favorite

L 13-24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-17 vs New Mexico #134 of 667

won by 17 as a 34.5-point favorite

Week by week

Michigan

Wk 1Wvs Western Michigan13-12

Oklahoma

Wk 1Wvs UTEP51-0

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Michigan, 92 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma’s EPA/play against Michigan’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 8th percentile · Michigan defense, 97th
Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Michigan’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Michigan defense, 94th
Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Michigan’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Michigan defense, 74th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

OklahomaMichigan

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Oklahoma leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 1975 · Oklahoma has won the last 2

2025Oklahoma 24-13
1975 · neutral siteOklahoma 14-6

Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oklahoma fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (22nd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Oklahoma favored by 5.5 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma by 5.5, on the usual path until 7:53 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 7 points toward Oklahoma.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan is worth +4.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

86% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-8 home, 25-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 883 miles to get here.

No. 24 Michigan upsets No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10