South Florida beats UAB 30-10
Team pages: UAB · South Florida
South Florida beat UAB 30-10. Share this game
We had South Florida favored. It won.
Next: UAB vs Charlotte, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET · UAB favored by 10
Next: South Florida at East Carolina, Fri Nov 6 · 7:30 PM ET · South Florida underdog by 1.5
Side note from the game: congrats UAB bros on joining the AAU! Welcome!
A South Florida fanHow it swung
The turning point: Collins 6-yd TD run, ties it 10-10 (Q2, 0:47). South Florida went from 59% to 81% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Florida a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (South Florida was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.
South Florida came back from 10 down, at one point just a 27% chance in the second quarter.
UAB led by 10, was as high as 73% in the second quarter, and still lost.
South Florida · Q2 0:37South Florida 30-10 UAB
South Florida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UAB 10-30 South FloridaUAB lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:58Robinson 5-yd TD run, UAB goes ahead 7-0South Florida 67% → 55% (−12)
- 2Q2 0:47Collins 6-yd TD run, ties it 10-10South Florida 59% → 81% (+22)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:58Robinson 5-yd TD run, UAB goes ahead 7-0UAB 33% → 45% (+12)
- 2Q2 0:47Collins 6-yd TD run, ties it 10-10UAB 41% → 19% (−22)
I am UAB fan and…. What??? Not targeting?
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 3:49Fans argue officials missed a targeting call on Van Buren's run
That's a really bad call lol that's the exact thing they want to take out of the game
r/CFB game thread - Q2 12:19USF fans celebrate backup Kromenhoek's pass to Isaac after UAB misses a field goal
Excited to see what Kromenhoek can do
r/CFB game thread - Q2 12:19Fans debate keeping Hoek over MVB after Kromenhoek's 42-yard run
Sorry MVB. I like your game but imo we gotta stick with Hoek
r/CFB game thread - Q3 1:15USF fans celebrate CJ Hicks sacking R.Burton for a 9-yard loss
CJ Hicks is completely destroying that O-line
r/CFB game threadCJ Hicks is like a literal transformer that plays football
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Florida -7.5), at 71% for South Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show South Florida’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:58Robinson 5-yd TD runUAB goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:58 · South Florida 0, UAB 7▼12%South Florida’s chance to win, 67% to 55%▼12%South Florida’s chance to win, 67% to 55%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 6:06Burton sacked for a 4-yd lossQ1, 6:06 · South Florida 0, UAB 70-7score after the play0-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 6:46Kromenhoek sacked for a 8-yd lossQ2, 6:46 · South Florida 0, UAB 10▲3%South Florida’s chance to win, 42% to 45%▲3%South Florida’s chance to win, 42% to 45%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 5:03Burton sacked for a 13-yd lossQ2, 5:03 · South Florida 3, UAB 10▲7%South Florida’s chance to win, 45% to 52%▲7%South Florida’s chance to win, 45% to 52%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:47Collins 6-yd TD runties it 10-10Q2, 0:47 · South Florida 10, UAB 10▲22%South Florida’s chance to win, 59% to 81%▲22%South Florida’s chance to win, 59% to 81%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:37Burton sacked, fumbles; Redwood returns it for a TDSouth Florida goes ahead 17-10Q2, 0:37 · South Florida 17, UAB 10▲6%South Florida’s chance to win, 81% to 87%▲6%South Florida’s chance to win, 81% to 87%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 12:28Burton sacked, fumbles; Howard returns it for a TDSouth Florida leads 27-10Q4, 12:28 · South Florida 27, UAB 10▲4%South Florida’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▲4%South Florida’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 5:51Burton sacked for a 5-yd lossQ4, 5:51 · South Florida 27, UAB 1027-10score after the play27-10score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
South Florida scored on 4 of its 10 drives; UAB on 2 of its 13.
South Florida’s drives are teal, UAB’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UAB’s side
UAB’s best moment: Robinson 5-yd TD run, UAB goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 10:58). It lifted UAB’s win chance by 12 points.
How UAB fans took it: “Congrats, Bulls. I was born at TGH so I might have worn different green and gold in another life.” r/CFB game thread
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
UAB’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
UAB plays vs Charlotte on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to win the conference. South Florida plays at East Carolina on Fri Nov 6 with a 5% chance to win the conference.
Box score
South Florida 30, UAB 10
South Florida covered −7.5 by 12.5. The total, 40, stayed under 43.5.
| Team totals | UAB | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 177 | 237 |
| Passing | 14 of 28, 160 yds | 8 of 12, 46 yds |
| Rushing | 33 for 17 yds | 43 for 191 yds |
| First downs | 10 | 13 |
| Third down | 4 of 16 | 6 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 2 for 20 yds | 3 for 24 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:42 | 32:18 |
UAB leaders
- Passing Ryder Burton 13 of 27, 149 yds
- Rushing Braylon McReynolds 8 for 22 yds; Roderick Robinson II 7 for 14 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving C.J. Smith 2 for 53 yds; KJ Daniels 1 for 33 yds
South Florida leaders
- Passing Luke Kromenhoek 7 of 10, 39 yds
- Rushing Luke Kromenhoek 15 for 92 yds; D.J. Crowther 16 for 60 yds
- Receiving D.J. Crowther 1 for 19 yds; Bryson Rodgers 3 for 11 yds
No rain and calm
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 21
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Tampa International Airport, 2.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UAB · 4-3
Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 79th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 13-point win over East Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 33-14 vs Samford No. 217 of 668 teams
won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite
Last three games
South Florida · 5-2
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 64th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
South Florida
- Wk 3Wvs Delaware State59-17
- Wk 4Wat Bowling Green14-6
- Wk 5Lvs Temple13-17
- Wk 6Lat UTSA24-31
- Wk 7Wvs Kent State29-2
UAB
- Wk 3Lat Louisiana14-21
- Wk 4Wvs Navy24-20
- Wk 5Wvs Samford33-14
- Wk 6Lat Memphis13-38
- Wk 7Wvs East Carolina30-17
Power rating by week
South Florida is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: South Florida’s explosive plays against UAB, 97 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Florida’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense
South Florida offense, 1st percentile · UAB defense, 98th
South Florida’s passing EPA against UAB’s defense
South Florida offense, 8th percentile · UAB defense, 94th
UAB’s EPA/play against South Florida’s defense
UAB offense, 16th percentile · South Florida defense, 71st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
South Florida leads the series 3-2
5 meetings since 2003 · South Florida has won the last 2
- 2025South Florida 48-18
- 2024South Florida 35-25
- 2023UAB 56-35
- 2004South Florida 45-20
- 2003UAB 22-19
Each line is South Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (71st percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
South Florida favored by 7.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
South Florida by 7.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward UAB.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −7.5 · Total: 46.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
South Florida is worth +2.6 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
43% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (18-24 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.3 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 460 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Florida10th1-2
- UAB5th2-1