Michigan State 30-20 Toledo (Sep 4, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Toledo · Michigan State

Toledo0-120

Michigan State1-030Final

Fri, Sep 4 · Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. · Crowd 72,083

Michigan State beat Toledo 30-20.

We had Toledo favored. Michigan State won.

Next: Toledo beat Central Connecticut 63-10, Sat Sep 12

Next: Michigan State beat Eastern Michigan 35-7, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

MSU is doing a lot of chirping on the field. Ya’ll are in a dog fight with the Toledo Rockets, might want to stay humble

Q4 7:50 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 4

How it swung

The turning point: Milivojevic 5-yd TD pass to Bullard, Michigan State goes ahead 27-20 (Q4, 10:37). Michigan State went from 77% to 93% to win. Fans right then: “Imagine trying to get up on an offensive lineman who’s actively throwing up on you” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Michigan State a 21% chance, and the closing betting line (Michigan State was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Favored the whole way: Michigan State never fell below 72%.

Toledo never had better than a 27% chance.

FinalMichigan State 30-20 ToledoMichigan State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 13:47Walendzak 71-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 20-19Michigan State 85% → 73% (−12)
2Q4 10:374th and 1Milivojevic 5-yd TD pass to Bullard, Michigan State goes ahead 27-20Michigan State 77% → 93% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 13:47Walendzak 71-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 20-19Toledo 15% → 27% (+12)
2Q4 10:374th and 1Milivojevic 5-yd TD pass to Bullard, Michigan State goes ahead 27-20Toledo 23% → 7% (−16)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 14:13A player's pants fell down during the game.ITS A PANTS PARTY!r/CFB game thread
Q2 7:50Richter throws deep touchdown to Dabbs as MSU fans blame BrantleyBack to the portal Brantleyr/CFB game threadTwo bad plays by Brantley on that driver/CFB game thread
Q4 14:36Toledo scores on a 71-yard run to take a 20-19 lead over Michigan StateValenti is about to be absolute cinema Mondayr/CFB game thread
Q4 13:47Milivojevic 15-yd pass to Bullard; roughing the passer on ToledoI mean ya'll acting like Michigan is losing to a flag football team. I mean I may be biased, but Toledo has pretty much always been slight above mediocre. Plus we ain't gonna hold…r/CFB game thread
Q4 13:47Fans react to an MSU lineman vomiting during the successful two-point conversion attemptOh my god that lineman spewed chunks on that play lmaor/CFB game threadImagine trying to get up on an offensive lineman who’s actively throwing up on your/CFB game thread
Q4 7:50Toledo's Griffith misses a 41-yard field goal as fans blame the heatThey pprobably should've just gone for it. Yikes what was that kickr/CFB game thread
Q4 7:50Fans argue over the facemask penalty call and the decision to kick the field goalQuoted at the top of the page.How is this a tough situation? You obviously kick the FG to take a 2 score lead with 2 min to gor/CFB game thread

Michigan State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Michigan State -10), at 81% for Michigan State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan State or Toledo flair (688 and 55); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Michigan State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Michigan State scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Toledo on 3 of its 10.

Michigan State’s drives are teal, Toledo’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Toledo’s side

Toledo’s best moment: Walendzak 71-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 20-19 (Q4 13:47). It lifted Toledo’s win chance by 12 points.

How Toledo fans took it: “learned a ton today” r/CFB game thread

“Alessio is a tough dude. He’s not quitting tonight”

A Michigan State fan

When fans got loud

Loud

Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was busy.

What it cost

Toledo’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Toledo · lost3% → ▼2%

Michigan State · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Toledo · lost30% → ▼29%

Michigan State · won0% → 0%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Michigan State 30, Toledo 20

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 50, went over 48.5.

Team totals	Toledo	Michigan State
Total yards	273	397
Passing	12 of 21, 196 yds	26 of 34, 247 yds
Rushing	20 for 77 yds	49 for 150 yds
First downs	10	26
Third down	1 of 8	6 of 18
Fourth down	0 of 1	2 of 3
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	7 for 39 yds	4 for 43 yds
Time of possession	16:44	43:16

Toledo leaders

Passing John Alan Richter 12 of 21, 196 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Connor Walendzak 7 for 76 yds, 1 TD; CJ Miller 8 for 22 yds
Receiving Adjatay Dabbs 4 for 101 yds, 2 TD; Bryson Hammer 3 for 49 yds

Michigan State leaders

Passing Alessio Milivojevic 26 of 34, 247 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Camryn Edwards 27 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Marvis Parrish 6 for 28 yds
Receiving Rodney Bullard Jr. 7 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Chrishon Mccray 8 for 69 yds

No rain and calm

75° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the northeast, gusts to 8

September game-day temperatures at Spartan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 6:49 left10:07 p.m.

Toledo 14, Michigan State 19 · Michigan State 74% to win

no rain · wind 1 mph from the west-northwest · 73°

Richter 6-yd TD pass to Dabbs

Measured at Lansing airport, 6.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Toledo · 8-5

Rated 48th in our preseason ratings.

L 22-27 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 5 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 21-3 @ Central Michigan #103 of 667

won by 18 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 38-9 vs Ball State #203 of 667

won by 29 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 24-3 @ Miami (OH) #92 of 667

won by 21 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 42-3 vs Northern Illinois #204 of 667

won by 39 as a 15.5-point favorite

L 7-28 @ Washington State #70 of 667

lost by 21 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 45-10 vs Kent State #212 of 667

won by 35 as a 25.5-point favorite

L 23-28 @ Bowling Green #102 of 667

lost by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 45-3 vs Akron #170 of 667

won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-14 @ Western Michigan #133 of 667

lost by 1 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 60-0 vs Morgan State #211 of 667

won by 60 as a 33.5-point favorite

W 45-21 vs Western Kentucky #91 of 667

won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 16-24 @ Kentucky #30 of 667

lost by 8 as a 9.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

Michigan State · 4-8

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings.

W 38-28 vs Maryland #98 of 667

won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 17-20 @ IowaTop 25 #30 of 667

lost by 3 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 10-28 vs Penn StateTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 18 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 20-23 @ Minnesota #64 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 20-31 vs MichiganTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 11 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 13-38 @ IndianaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 25 as a 26.5-point underdog

L 13-38 vs UCLA #58 of 667

lost by 25 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 27-38 @ NebraskaTop 25 #35 of 667

lost by 11 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 31-45 @ USCTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 14 as an 18.5-point underdog

W 41-24 vs Youngstown State #193 of 667

won by 17 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 42-40 vs Boston College #55 of 667

won by 2 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 23-6 vs Western Michigan #118 of 667

won by 17 as a 22.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Toledo’s explosive plays against Michigan State, 90 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Toledo’s explosive plays against Michigan State’s defense
Toledo offense, 99th percentile · Michigan State defense, 9th
Toledo’s EPA/play against Michigan State’s defense
Toledo offense, 79th percentile · Michigan State defense, 11th
Toledo’s passing EPA against Michigan State’s defense
Toledo offense, 87th percentile · Michigan State defense, 15th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ToledoMichigan State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 1925 · Michigan State won the last meeting

1925Michigan State 58-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (79th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Michigan State favored by 10 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Michigan State by 10, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Toledo.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan State is worth +2.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 27th percentile.

53% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 13-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 86 miles to get here.

Michigan State beats Toledo 30-20