Miami 45-6 Stanford (Sep 4, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Miami · Stanford

No. 7 Miami1-045

Stanford1-16Final

Fri, Sep 4 · Stanford Stadium, Stanford, Calif. · Crowd 37,648

No. 7 Miami routed Stanford 45-6.

We had Miami favored. It won.

Next: Miami beat Florida A&M 77-7, Thu Sep 10

Next: Stanford lost to Duke 35-7, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Toney + Mensah is unstoppable

Q3 5:24 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 4

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 24.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.

FinalMiami 45-6 StanfordMiami wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q1 7:57Kenney 30-yd field goalMiami 84% → 94% (+10)

The play that swung it

1Q1 7:57Kenney 30-yd field goalStanford 16% → 6% (−10)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 12:40Fans call the roughing penalty on Mensah's pass to Toney incredibly softSo apparently you wont be allowed to touch Mensah this year.r/CFB game threadman I've been saying Toney is the best player in the country and I'll keep saying itr/CFB game thread
Q1 10:03Stanford fans celebrate Warren's deep throw broken up by LucasImagine if Michigan had a QB like Davis Warrenr/CFB game thread
Q2 13:00Fans argue officials missed pass interference on Warren's incomplete pass to JosephHard enough to beat Miami, but beating the refs too??? Yeah we are screwed.r/CFB game threadRefs using a microscope for any holding call on stanford but theyre blind as bats on obvious PIr/CFB game thread
Q2 8:32Mensah connects with Toney for a 39-yard gain as fans praise the receiverSit toney the rest of the game lolr/CFB game threadToney looks like what Ryan Williams was supposed to be year 2r/CFB game thread
Q2 3:37Miami fans celebrate Toney nearing 200 yards as Stanford DBs fail to cover himThis is essentially how I play CFB 27. Toney finishes every game with 20 receptions, Mensah finishes with 25ish completions lol.r/CFB game threadIt’s so funny seeing the throw and the camera just show Toney with no one within 15 yardsr/CFB game thread
Q3 5:24Mensah throws 47-yard TD to Toney, breaking Miami's single-game receiving recordQuoted at the top of the page.

Miami’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Miami -24.5), at 92% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Stanford or Miami flair (299 and 723); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Miami scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Stanford on 2 of its 11.

Miami’s drives are teal, Stanford’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Stanford’s side

Stanford’s best moment: Warren 22-yd pass to Robinson (Q1 12:06). It lifted Stanford’s win chance by 12 points.

How Stanford fans took it: “I think it’s just that one neckbeard lurking here for no reason. Most of the ones I’ve seen seem to be happy for him.” r/CFB game thread

“Warren looks good. our dline needs reps, I'm sure they'll settle in over the first few weeks”

A Miami fan

How fans reacted

Steady

It was the second quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Stanford fans

davis“Davis Warren went through cancer, and yet nothing has been as torturous as playing with these wide receivers”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, looks, ball, pretty.

What it cost

Miami’s chance to make the playoff rose from 58% to 61%.

Make the playoff

Miami · won58% → ▲61%

Stanford · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Miami · won49% → ▲52%

Stanford · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Miami 45, Stanford 6

Miami covered −24.5 by 14.5. The total, 51, went over 46.5.

Team totals	Miami	Stanford
Total yards	549	299
Passing	30 of 35, 428 yds	22 of 42, 221 yds
Rushing	32 for 121 yds	23 for 78 yds
First downs	27	17
Third down	8 of 11	5 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 0	0 of 2
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	5 for 50 yds	9 for 70 yds
Time of possession	36:34	23:26

Miami leaders

Passing Darian Mensah 27 of 30, 401 yds, 5 TD
Rushing Mark Fletcher Jr. 13 for 40 yds; CharMar Brown 8 for 37 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Malachi Toney 12 for 234 yds, 3 TD; Cooper Barkate 4 for 67 yds, 1 TD

Stanford leaders

Passing Davis Warren 21 of 41, 214 yds
Rushing Sedrick Irvin 6 for 41 yds; Micah Ford 11 for 27 yds
Receiving Caden High 6 for 92 yds; Benjamin Blackburn 7 for 52 yds

No rain through the game

70° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 79°.

September game-day temperatures at Stanford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:48 left6:06 p.m.

Miami 0, Stanford 0 · Stanford 8% to win

69°

Warren 5-yd pass to Onovughe

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Palo Alto Airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Miami · 13-3

Rated 10th in our preseason ratings.

L 21-27 @ IndianaTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 6 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 31-27 @ Ole MissTop 25 #6 of 667

won by 4 as a 3-point favorite

W 24-14 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

won by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 10-3 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #15 of 667

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 38-7 @ PittsburghTop 25 #42 of 667

won by 31 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 34-17 @ Virginia Tech #76 of 667

won by 17 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 41-7 vs NC State #58 of 667

won by 34 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 38-10 vs Syracuse #109 of 667

won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite

L 20-26 @ SMUTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 42-7 vs Stanford #117 of 667

won by 35 as a 28.5-point favorite

L 21-24 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #26 of 667

lost by 3 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 28-22 @ Florida StateTop 25 #23 of 667

won by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 26-7 vs FloridaTop 25 #17 of 667

won by 19 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 49-12 vs South FloridaTop 25 #48 of 667

won by 37 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 45-3 vs Bethune-Cookman #217 of 667

won by 42 as a 54.5-point favorite

W 27-24 vs Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

Stanford · 4-8

Rated 97th in our preseason ratings, 97th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 21-point win over California as a 4.5-point underdog.

L 20-49 vs Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 29 as a 33.5-point underdog

W 31-10 vs California #101 of 667

won by 21 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 15-20 @ North Carolina #85 of 667

lost by 5 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 20-35 vs PittsburghTop 25 #37 of 667

lost by 15 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 7-42 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 35 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 20-13 vs Florida StateTop 25 #36 of 667

won by 7 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 10-34 @ SMUTop 25 #26 of 667

lost by 24 as a 19.5-point underdog

W 30-29 vs San José State #104 of 667

won by 1 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 20-48 @ VirginiaTop 25 #49 of 667

lost by 28 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 30-20 vs Boston College #59 of 667

won by 10 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 3-27 @ BYUTop 25 #53 of 667

lost by 24 as a 20.5-point underdog

L 20-23 @ Hawai'i #152 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Miami’s EPA/play against Stanford, 100 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Miami’s EPA/play against Stanford’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Stanford defense, 0th
Miami’s passing EPA against Stanford’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Stanford defense, 9th
Miami’s explosive plays against Stanford’s defense
Miami offense, 68th percentile · Stanford defense, 15th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MiamiStanford

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Miami leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · Miami won the last meeting

2025Miami 42-7

Each line is Stanford’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Miami favored by 24.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

Miami by 24.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Miami.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 3.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Stanford is worth +2.2 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.

33% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (15-30 home, 16-31 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,565 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Stanford8th0-0
Miami13th0-0

Full ACC standings

No. 7 Miami routs Stanford 45-6