The turning point:Davison 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14 (Q2, 5:26). Oklahoma State went from 40% to 18% to win. Fans right then: “Lol at Joel Klatt preseason saying Oregon should be unanimous #1, no discussion” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oklahoma State a 1% chance, and the closing betting line (Oklahoma State was a 24.5-point underdog) put it at 2%.
Pick-sixOregon · Q1 6:04
FinalOklahoma State 39-31 OregonOklahoma State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalOregon 31-39 Oklahoma StateOregon lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 5:26Davison 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14Oklahoma State 40% → 18% (−22)
2Q3 9:12Moore 36-yd TD pass to Moore, cuts it to 27-24Oklahoma State 46% → 25% (−21)
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 5:26Davison 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14Oregon 60% → 82% (+22)
2Q3 9:12Moore 36-yd TD pass to Moore, cuts it to 27-24Oregon 54% → 75% (+21)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 3:47Mestemaker throws 52-yard touchdown pass to Young as fans mock OregonLol at Joel Klatt preseason saying Oregon should be unanimous #1, no discussionr/CFB game thread
Q4 6:53Fans rip Dan Lanning for going for it on 4th and 8 in own end zonePlease unrank this team AP. Dan is a legit dumbass.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:59When your root canal gets canceled and you win the lottery for some reasonr/CFB game threadaw c'mon Ducks fans. Sure it's unlikely, but it's a one-score game. stay till the end.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:44Oklahoma State fans storm the field as Dan Lanning goes for it on 4th downQuoted at the top of the page.Dan Lanning is a fraudr/CFB game thread
Oklahoma State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Oregon -24.5), at 8% for Oklahoma State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oklahoma State or Oregon flair (1,067 and 2,743); both sides share one scale, regulation only.Kickoff came 1 hour 28 minutes late. Thunder was reported in the vicinity of Stillwater Muni airport (2.7 miles away) from 12:09 p.m. to 12:19 p.m., around the delay.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Oklahoma State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
How Oregon fans took it: “OkSt hasn't beaten an FBS team since Sept 2024. Anyone acting like this wasn't one of the biggest upsets ever is fooling themselves.” r/CFB game thread
“Crazy that we have to rely on 2 nuts interceptions to be staying in this game”
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Oklahoma State fans
tipped“So you’re telling me that if the ball is tipped you can just tackle the guy? That didn’t happen here but that’s basically what the rule says.”
fun“That was so cool. I just wanted a fun team again. Last week killed me. This week I’m all the way back. What a game.”
gundy“Good open field tackle. A Gundy-coached team would have whiffed on that.”
boys“Last year half the sorry team entered the portal mid season after some adversity. I’m proud of the boys today no matter what”
Oregon fans
coordinators“It seems the coordinators have made a bigger impact on this team that I expected”
look“Doesn’t change the fact that we look flat. Gonna get the smelling salt out.”
lanning“Lanning has gone for it in some very questionable situations before, but that was uniquely stupid.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, don, half, getting.
The winner fell to 4%.
What it cost
Oregon’s chance to make the playoff fell from 40% to 26%.
Make the playoff
Oregon · lost40% → ▼26%
Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%
Win the conference
Oregon · lost15% → ▼13%
Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%
Win the title
Oregon · lost3% → ▼2%
Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Oklahoma State 39, Oregon 31
Oklahoma State covered +24.5 by 32.5. The total, 70, went over 55.5.
Team totals
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Total yards
281
554
Passing
14 of 29, 191 yds
26 of 43, 317 yds
Rushing
30 for 90 yds
40 for 237 yds
First downs
12
25
Third down
5 of 14
5 of 17
Fourth down
0 of 3
1 of 1
Turnovers
1
2
Penalties
7 for 66 yds
2 for 30 yds
Time of possession
23:06
36:54
Oregon leaders
Passing Dante Moore 14 of 29, 191 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Dierre Hill Jr. 15 for 74 yds; Jordon Davison 8 for 23 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Evan Stewart 4 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Dakorien Moore 3 for 45 yds, 1 TD
Oklahoma State leaders
Passing Drew Mestemaker 26 of 43, 317 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Caleb Hawkins 23 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Drew Mestemaker 6 for 109 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Wyatt Young 5 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Justin Bowick 5 for 81 yds
Kickoff came 1 hour 28 minutes late
85° at kickoff · feels like 90° to 106° · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the east-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 21
A feels-like 106° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Thunder was reported in the vicinity of Stillwater Muni airport (2.7 miles away) from 12:09 p.m. to 12:19 p.m., around the delay.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 65 other games played at Boone Pickens Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 78°, with about 7 in 10 games between 68° and 89°.
Oregon 14, Oklahoma State 17 · Oklahoma State 18% to win
no rain · wind 11 mph from the east-southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 17 · 92°, feels like 100°
Davison 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Stillwater Muni airport, 2.7 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Oregon · 13-2
Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 2nd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 23-point win over Texas Tech as a 1.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Oregon’s rushing EPA against Oklahoma State, 57 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon’s rushing EPA against Oklahoma State’s defense
Oregon offense, 17th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 74th
Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against Oregon’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 13th percentile · Oregon defense, 30th
Oregon’s EPA/play against Oklahoma State’s defense
Oregon offense, 37th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 53rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
OregonOklahoma State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Oregon leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2008 · Oregon has won the last 2
2025Oregon 69-3
2008 · neutral siteOregon 42-31
Each line is Oklahoma State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Oregon fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (28th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Oregon favored by 24.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Oregon by 24.5, on the usual path until Q1 14:54
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 6 points toward Oregon.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: +18.5 → +24.5 · Total: 60.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot, with rain. Feels like 93° at kickoff.
Oregon at Oklahoma State · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater
93°feels like at kickoff
0.05 inrain at kickoff
42weather score, Harsh
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Boone Pickens Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 78, against 42 at 11 am.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
Harsh
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100)42Harsh40Harsh41Harsh64Rough78Mixed
11 am2:30 pm3:15 pm6 pm6:45 pm
11 am: 42, Harsh (this game)
2:30 pm: 40, Harsh
3:15 pm: 41, Harsh
6 pm: 64, Rough
6:45 pm: 78, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Oklahoma State is worth +4.3 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.
65% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,472 miles to get here.
Oregon · Q1 6:04
Oklahoma State 39-31 Oregon