Scores and schedule

Week
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How this is measured

Week 4, 2026. Scores and kickoff times as of the Nov 4 update, not live. Numbers beside teams are AP ranks.

Blue is our model's chance to win. Gold is what the betting line implies, shown where it is 20 points or more from ours.

Biggest games

Thursday, September 24

Friday, September 25

Saturday, September 26

How our picks have done

Week 4: picked the winner in 71 of 93 games.

Season: the winner in 581 of 780 games (74%). Our picks have won about as often as the chances we gave them.

Favorite given 50–60%won 59% of 150Favorite given 60–70%won 68% of 177Favorite given 70–80%won 72% of 157Favorite given 80–90%won 84% of 159Favorite given 90–100%won 93% of 137

Bar: how often the favorite won. Tick: the average chance we gave it.

How picks are counted

A pick is the side our rating model favored the last time we recorded it before kickoff. A game with no recorded pick, and a tie, is left out. The chance shown beside this week’s games comes from the playoff simulation, so it can differ from the chance behind the pick.

Every game where our model and the betting line split is on where we disagree. For the table, see the standings.