Through week 20, our model and the major sportsbooks already diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: Indiana — we have them #120, Vegas has them #2.
We believe · Vegas is not yet
Indiana
Big Ten
#120
Our model
#2
Vegas
#1#25
We have them #120. Vegas has them #2 (+750) — 118 spots behind us.
Vegas is in · we're skeptical
Oregon State
Pac-12
#8
Our model
#122
Vegas
#1#25
4.0 projected wins. Our model has them #8 — 114 spots lower.
We believe · Vegas is not yet
Miami
ACC
#108
Our model
#4
Vegas
#1#25
We have them #108. Vegas has them #4 (+1200) — 104 spots behind us.
Polls & our model
Live
Bettors
Live
Résumé
After wk 1
Belief
Live
Team
Our model
Human polls
Bettors
Gap track (rank 1 → 25)
| Team | CFB Zeitgeist▲ | AP | Coaches | Committee | Win total | us vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
Georgia
SEC
|
111.3 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
9.5 W
+850
|
#1#25
|
|
2
Alabama
SEC
|
28.3 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+2200
|
#1#25
|
|
3
Tennessee
SEC
|
36.9 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+5000
|
#1#25
|
|
4
Penn State
Big Ten
|
46.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+5000
|
#1#25
|
|
5
Michigan
Big Ten
|
56.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+3500
|
#1#25
|
|
6
Ohio State
Big Ten
|
66.0 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
9.5 W
+600
|
#1#25
|
|
7
Fresno State
Mountain West
|
75.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+100000
|
#1#25
|
|
8
Oregon State
Pac-12
|
85.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
4.0 W
+150000
|
#1#25
|
|
9
LSU
SEC
|
95.2 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+1600
|
#1#25
|
|
10
Florida State
ACC
|
105.0 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
6.5 W
+18000
|
#1#25
|
|
11
Utah
Pac-12
|
115.0 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+10000
|
#1#25
|
|
12
Tulane
American Athletic
|
124.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+30000
|
#1#25
|
| ― On the bubble | ||||||
|
13
Air Force
Mountain West
|
134.3 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
6.5 W
+100000
|
#1#25
|
|
14
Clemson
ACC
|
144.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+8000
|
#1#25
|
|
15
Troy
Sun Belt
|
154.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
6.5 W
+150000
|
#1#25
|
|
16
Louisville
ACC
|
164.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+12500
|
#1#25
|
|
17
UTSA
Conference USA
|
174.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+150000
|
#1#25
|
|
18
Boise State
Mountain West
|
183.8 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.0 W
+30000
|
#1#25
|
|
19
Memphis
American Athletic
|
193.8 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+60000
|
#1#25
|
|
20
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
|
203.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
11.5 W
+650
|
#1#25
|
|
21
Washington
Pac-12
|
213.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+10000
|
#1#25
|
|
22
Texas
Big 12
|
223.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
9.5 W
+750
|
#1#25
|
|
23
Oregon
Pac-12
|
233.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
10.5 W
+800
|
#1#25
|
|
24
Duke
ACC
|
243.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
5.5 W
+40000
|
#1#25
|
|
25
Iowa
Big Ten
|
253.4 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+12000
|
#1#25
|
CFB Zeitgeist — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context.
AP / Coaches — official human polls; preseason editions release Aug 11.
Committee — CFP selection committee rankings begin Oct 28 (week 10).
Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.
Blue = our model rank
Gold = Vegas rank (by win total)
Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)
Biggest gap — Vegas above us
Indiana
+118 spots
Biggest gap — us above Vegas
Oregon State
+114 spots
Books sampled
3 – 5
Consensus median · de-vigged title %
Win totals — what Vegas expects
Consensus line across major sportsbooks.
The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.
Team
Projected wins
Line
Title %
Notre Dame
11.5
13.3%
Indiana
10.5
11.8%
Oregon
10.5
11.1%
Miami
10.5
7.7%
Texas Tech
10.5
4.8%
Ohio State
9.5
14.3%
Texas
9.5
11.8%
Georgia
9.5
10.5%
north-dakota-state
9.5
—
LSU
8.5
5.9%
Texas A&M
8.5
5.3%
Alabama
8.5
4.3%
Michigan
8.5
2.8%
USC
8.5
2.8%
Penn State
8.5
2.0%
BYU
8.5
1.1%
Utah
8.5
1.0%
SMU
8.5
0.8%
Kansas State
8.5
0.5%
south-florida
8.5
0.2%
James Madison
8.5
0.1%
Liberty
8.5
0.1%
Boise State
8.0
0.3%
Ole Miss
7.5
3.2%
Oklahoma
7.5
3.2%
Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks ·
de-vigged CFP championship futures
Model rank vs. Vegas rank
Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Zeitgeist rank.
Vegas rank (win total)
CFB Zeitgeist rank
Georgia
V#8 · #1
Alabama
V#12 · #2
Tennessee
V#27 · #3
Penn State
V#15 · #4
Michigan
V#13 · #5
Ohio State
V#6 · #6
Fresno State
V#48 · #7
Oregon State
V#122 · #8
#1#6#11#16#21
Source: CFB Zeitgeist model · consensus median across major sportsbooks
Résumé rankings
What each team has earned on the field — wins over ranked opponents,
margin in key games, schedule strength. Starts populating after week 1 (Aug 29).
Available Aug 30
Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume,
sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Offseason readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.
Rising this week
Old Dominion
▲30.6
64 pts · Cooking
Michigan
▲24.2
77 pts · Cooking
West Virginia
▲15.0
61 pts · Uneasy
Falling this week
Air Force
▼12.1
50 pts · Uneasy
Massachusetts
▼10.4
51 pts · Uneasy
Louisiana
▼8.5
64 pts · Cooking
| # | Team | Belief score | This week | Zone | vs. Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 80 | — | so_back | — |
| 2 | Virginia Tech | 78 | ▲11.4 | Cooking | — |
| 3 | Michigan | 77 | ▲24.2 | Cooking | Fans +90 |
| 4 | Miami (OH) | 75 | ▲6.4 | Cooking | — |
| 5 | New Mexico State | 72 | — | Cooking | — |
| 6 | Tulsa | 71 | — | Cooking | — |
| 7 | Marshall | 70 | ▲2.6 | Cooking | — |
| 8 | Sam Houston | 69 | ▼1.1 | Cooking | — |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 69 | ▲1.5 | Cooking | — |
| 10 | Northern Illinois | 69 | ▼6.9 | Cooking | — |
| 11 | Penn State | 69 | ▲9.9 | Cooking | — |
| 12 | Kansas | 68 | ▲9.8 | Cooking | — |
| 13 | Auburn | 68 | ▲3.4 | Cooking | — |
| 14 | Oregon | 67 | ▲6.6 | Cooking | Fans +20 |
| 15 | Virginia | 66 | ▲2.9 | Cooking | — |
| 16 | Baylor | 66 | ▲6.2 | Cooking | — |
| 17 | North Texas | 66 | ▲5.6 | Cooking | — |
| 18 | Bowling Green | 66 | — | Cooking | — |
| 19 | Arizona | 66 | ▼0.9 | Cooking | — |
| 20 | Arkansas | 65 | ▲5.0 | Cooking | — |
| 21 | Stanford | 65 | ▼6.8 | Cooking | — |
| 22 | Ole Miss | 65 | ▲9.0 | Cooking | — |
| 23 | Missouri State | 65 | ▲9.1 | Cooking | — |
| 24 | North Dakota State | 64 | ▼0.4 | Cooking | — |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 64 | ▲4.0 | Cooking | — |
| 26 | Louisiana | 64 | ▼8.5 | Cooking | — |
| 27 | Georgia Tech | 64 | ▲6.6 | Cooking | — |
| 28 | Alabama | 64 | ▲0.8 | Cooking | Fans +40 |
| 29 | Troy | 64 | ▼2.8 | Cooking | — |
| 30 | Houston | 64 | ▼2.0 | Cooking | — |
| 31 | Western Michigan | 64 | ▲10.5 | Cooking | — |
| 32 | Texas | 64 | ▲9.6 | Cooking | Mkt +10 |
| 33 | Washington | 64 | ▼6.8 | Cooking | — |
| 34 | Indiana | 64 | ▲5.4 | Cooking | — |
| 35 | Mississippi State | 64 | ▼1.3 | Cooking | — |
| 36 | Maryland | 64 | ▲5.1 | Cooking | — |
| 37 | Old Dominion | 64 | ▲30.6 | Cooking | — |
| 38 | East Carolina | 64 | — | Cooking | — |
| 39 | Texas A&M | 63 | ▲1.1 | Cooking | Fans +30 |
| 40 | Florida State | 63 | ▲13.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 41 | Miami | 63 | ▼2.8 | Cooking | Mkt +10 |
| 42 | Louisiana Tech | 63 | ▼1.8 | Cooking | — |
| 43 | Iowa | 63 | ▲3.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 44 | Nebraska | 63 | ▲7.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 45 | James Madison | 63 | ▲3.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 46 | Notre Dame | 63 | ▲11.1 | Uneasy | Mkt +50 |
| 47 | Western Kentucky | 63 | — | Cooking | — |
| 48 | Purdue | 62 | ▼0.1 | Cooking | — |
| 49 | Oklahoma State | 62 | ▲6.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 50 | Florida | 62 | ▲3.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 51 | Southern Miss | 62 | ▲0.4 | Cooking | — |
| 52 | Ohio | 62 | ▲0.1 | Cooking | — |
| 53 | Louisville | 62 | ▼6.3 | Cooking | — |
| 54 | Texas State | 62 | ▲1.9 | Cooking | — |
| 55 | Iowa State | 62 | ▲13.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 56 | Temple | 62 | ▼0.1 | Cooking | — |
| 57 | Vanderbilt | 62 | ▲5.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 58 | BYU | 62 | ▲10.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 59 | LSU | 62 | ▲3.0 | Cooking | — |
| 60 | Army | 61 | ▲2.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 61 | Georgia Southern | 61 | ▲3.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 62 | Toledo | 61 | ▲3.4 | Cooking | — |
| 63 | West Virginia | 61 | ▲15.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 64 | Georgia State | 61 | ▲10.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 65 | Illinois | 61 | ▼1.4 | Cooking | — |
| 66 | Minnesota | 60 | ▲4.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 67 | Michigan State | 60 | ▲14.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 68 | Ohio State | 60 | ▲5.4 | Uneasy | Mkt +80 |
| 69 | Nevada | 60 | ▲0.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 70 | Hawai'i | 60 | ▼1.0 | Cooking | — |
| 71 | Utah State | 60 | ▼2.0 | Cooking | — |
| 72 | Colorado State | 60 | ▲0.1 | Cooking | — |
| 73 | Akron | 60 | ▼1.3 | Cooking | — |
| 74 | Washington State | 60 | ▼1.1 | Cooking | — |
| 75 | Buffalo | 59 | ▲4.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 76 | Missouri | 59 | ▼6.7 | Cooking | — |
| 77 | Utah | 59 | ▲1.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 78 | Georgia | 59 | ▼1.9 | Cooking | Mkt +40 |
| 79 | South Carolina | 59 | ▼2.8 | Cooking | — |
| 80 | North Carolina | 59 | ▲4.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 81 | UAB | 59 | ▼5.9 | Cooking | — |
| 82 | Duke | 58 | ▼3.6 | Cooking | — |
| 83 | Liberty | 58 | ▼2.8 | Cooking | — |
| 84 | Kentucky | 58 | ▼7.3 | Cooking | — |
| 85 | Oklahoma | 58 | ▼4.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 86 | Florida International | 58 | ▼1.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 87 | Rice | 58 | ▼3.0 | Cooking | — |
| 88 | UNLV | 58 | ▲6.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 89 | SMU | 58 | ▼0.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 90 | NC State | 58 | ▲5.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 91 | Tulane | 58 | ▼4.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 92 | Sacramento State | 58 | ▲8.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 93 | Memphis | 57 | ▲0.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 94 | UTSA | 57 | ▼2.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 95 | South Alabama | 57 | ▼1.4 | Uneasy | — |
| 96 | Boise State | 57 | ▼0.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 97 | UL Monroe | 57 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 98 | TCU | 56 | ▼3.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 99 | Colorado | 56 | ▼0.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 100 | Oregon State | 56 | ▼5.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 101 | UCLA | 56 | ▼2.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 102 | Rutgers | 56 | ▼5.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 103 | UConn | 55 | ▼7.4 | Uneasy | — |
| 104 | Arizona State | 55 | ▲6.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 105 | South Florida | 55 | ▼6.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 106 | Jacksonville State | 55 | ▲4.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 107 | Fresno State | 55 | ▼2.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 108 | Clemson | 55 | ▲2.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 109 | Tennessee | 54 | ▼8.4 | Uneasy | — |
| 110 | San Diego State | 54 | ▲2.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 111 | Coastal Carolina | 54 | ▼1.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 112 | Boston College | 53 | ▲2.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 113 | Syracuse | 53 | ▼2.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 114 | Wake Forest | 53 | ▼4.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 115 | Wyoming | 53 | ▼4.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 116 | UCF | 53 | ▲12.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 117 | California | 53 | ▲0.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 118 | Texas Tech | 53 | ▲13.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 119 | UTEP | 52 | ▼0.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 120 | New Mexico | 52 | ▼0.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 121 | Ball State | 52 | ▼0.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 122 | San José State | 51 | ▲6.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 123 | Massachusetts | 51 | ▼10.4 | Uneasy | — |
| 124 | App State | 50 | ▲2.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 125 | Middle Tennessee | 50 | ▼3.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 126 | Cincinnati | 50 | ▲14.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 127 | Air Force | 50 | ▼12.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 128 | Kansas State | 50 | ▼6.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 129 | Kennesaw State | 50 | ▲1.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 130 | USC | 49 | ▼7.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 131 | Northwestern | 48 | ▼6.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 132 | Delaware | 46 | ▼2.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 133 | Charlotte | 45 | ▼0.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 134 | Pittsburgh | 41 | ▼8.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 135 | Arkansas State | 21 | — | Cooked | — |
~ = low-signal (135 of 135 programs — offseason readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.